- a criticism of people who believe that the economy will fix itself after an economic problem (focus on recessions for this model)
- the long run is not a set amount of time, but when all the economic variables change
- in the short run, some economic variables are considered fixed
- an economy will fix itself without any external help (stimulus, unemployment insurance)
- an economy needs external help (stimulus, unemployment insurance) to fix itself
- I want to compare the two models, identify which one might be better and during what conditions
- use a dataset of years specifying economic variables(gdp, unemployment percentage, etc)
- analyze years when recessions took place and the years that follow
- how do the economic factors affect when there is a recession?
- did the economic variables change for the better in the short run?
- did the economic variables change for the better in the long run?
- identify whether external help was used during the year of recession
- the final model should take in the economic variables of the start year of the recession and the amount of external help, and then return the predicted economic variables in the long run and short run
- 1990's early recession: the government response was around $286 billion over the course of the recession
- Dot Com bubble and 9/11 recession: the government response was around $38 billion over the course of the recession
- Great recession: the government response was around $1.5 trillion over the course of the recession
- Covid 19 recession: the government response was around $2.2 trillion over the course of the recession
- Kaggle Dataset: https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/shubhaanshkumar/us-recession-dataset/data
- external notes and research was done through google searches and chatgpt enquiries, so it may not be accurate, however it was hard to find quantitative results on the government responses