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Table: Disease dynamics parameters

Name Value Symbol Description Source
mean_time_to_symptoms 5.42 μsym Mean time from infection to onset of symptoms (days) McAloon et al.
sd_time_to_symptoms 2.7 σsym Standard deviation of time from infection to onset of symptoms (days) McAloon et al.
mean_time_to_hospital 5.14 μhosp Mean time from symptom onset to hospitalisation (days) Pellis et al, 2020
mean_time_to_critical 2.27 μcrit Mean time from hospitalisation to critical care admission (days) Personal communication with SPI-M; data soon to be published
sd_time_to_critical 2.27 σcrit Standard deviation of time from hospitalisation to critical care admission (days) Personal communication with SPI-M; data soon to be published
mean_time_to_recover 12 μrec Mean time to recovery if hospitalisation is not required (days) Yang et al 2020
sd_time_to_recover 5 σrec Standard deviation of time to recovery if hospitalisaion is not required (days) Yang et al 2020
mean_time_to_death 11.74 μdeath Mean time to death after acquiring critical care (days) Personal communication with SPI-M; data soon to be published
sd_time_to_death 8.79 σdeath Standard deviation of time to death after acquiring critical care (days) Personal communication with SPI-M; data soon to be published
mean_time_to_susceptible_after_shift 180 - mean time to susceptible after recovered (and after a fixed period of time_to_susceptible_shift days) -
time_to_susceptible_shift 10000 - Fixed number of days individuals are immune until waning immunity begins -
fraction_asymptomatic_0_9 0.456 φasym(0-9) Fraction of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, aged 0-9 -
fraction_asymptomatic_10_19 0.412 φasym(10-19) Fraction of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, aged 10-19 Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey
fraction_asymptomatic_20_29 0.370 φasym(20-29) Fraction of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, aged 20-29 Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey
fraction_asymptomatic_30_39 0.332 φasym(30-39) Fraction of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, aged 30-39 Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey
fraction_asymptomatic_40_49 0.296 φasym(40-49) Fraction of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, aged 40-49 Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey
fraction_asymptomatic_50_59 0.265 φasym(50-59) Fraction of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, aged 50-59 Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey
fraction_asymptomatic_60_69 0.238 φasym(60-69) Fraction of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, aged 60-69 Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey
fraction_asymptomatic_70_79 0.214 φasym(70-79) Fraction of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, aged 70-79 Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey
fraction_asymptomatic_80 0.192 φasym(80) Fraction of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, aged 80+ -
mild_fraction_0_9 0.533 φmild(0-9) Fraction of infected individuals with mild symptoms, aged 0-9 Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey
mild_fraction_10_19 0.569 φmild(10-19) Fraction of infected individuals with mild symptoms, aged 10-19 Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey
mild_fraction_20_29 0.597 φmild(20-29) Fraction of infected individuals with mild symptoms, aged 20-29 Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey
mild_fraction_30_39 0.614 φmild(30-39) Fraction of infected individuals with mild symptoms, aged 30-39 Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey
mild_fraction_40_49 0.616 φmild(40-49) Fraction of infected individuals with mild symptoms, aged 40-49 Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey
mild_fraction_50_59 0.602 φmild(50-59) Fraction of infected individuals with mild symptoms, aged 50-59 Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey
mild_fraction_60_69 0.571 φmild(60-69) Fraction of infected individuals with mild symptoms, aged 60-69 Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey
mild_fraction_70_79 0.523 φmild(70-79) Fraction of infected individuals with mild symptoms, aged 70-79 Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey
mild_fraction_80 0.461 φmild(80) Fraction of infected individuals with mild symptoms, aged 80+ Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey
mean_asymptomatic_to_recovery 15 μa,rec Mean time from infection to recovery (and no longer infectious) for an asymptomatic individual (days) Yang et al 2020
sd_asymptomatic_to_recovery 5 σa,rec Standard deviation from infection to recovery for an asymptomatic individual (days) Yang et al 2020
hospitalised_fraction_0_9 0.001 φhosp(0-9) Fraction of infected individuals with severe symptoms aged 0-9 who are hospitalised Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey & Ferguson et al. 2020
hospitalised_fraction_10_19 0.006 φhosp(10-19) Fraction of infected individuals with severe symptoms aged 10-19 who are hospitalised Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey & Ferguson et al. 2020
hospitalised_fraction_20_29 0.015 φhosp(20-29) Fraction of infected individuals with severe symptoms aged 20-29 who are hospitalised Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey & Ferguson et al. 2020
hospitalised_fraction_30_39 0.069 φhosp(30-39) Fraction of infected individuals with severe symptoms aged 30-39 who are hospitalised Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey & Ferguson et al. 2020
hospitalised_fraction_40_49 0.219 φhosp(40-49) Fraction of infected individuals with severe symptoms aged 40-49 who are hospitalised Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey & Ferguson et al. 2020
hospitalised_fraction_50_59 0.279 φhosp(50-59) Fraction of infected individuals with severe symptoms aged 50-59 who are hospitalised Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey & Ferguson et al. 2020
hospitalised_fraction_60_69 0.370 φhosp(60-69) Fraction of infected individuals with severe symptoms aged 60-69 who are hospitalised Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey & Ferguson et al. 2020
hospitalised_fraction_70_79 0.391 φhosp(70-79) Fraction of infected individuals with severe symptoms aged 70-79 who are hospitalised Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey & Ferguson et al. 2020
hospitalised_fraction_80 0.379 φhosp(80) Fraction of infected individuals with severe symptoms aged 80+ who are hospitalised Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey & Ferguson et al. 2020
critical_fraction_0_9 0.05 φcrit(0-9) Fraction of hospitalised individuals aged 0-9 who need critical care Ferguson et al, 2020
critical_fraction_10_19 0.05 φcrit(10-19) Fraction of hospiatlised individuals aged 10-19 who need critical care Ferguson et al, 2020
critical_fraction_20_29 0.05 φcrit(20-29) Fraction of hospitalised individuals aged 20-29 who need critical care Ferguson et al, 2020
critical_fraction_30_39 0.05 φcrit(30-39) Fraction of hospitalised individuals aged 30-39 who need critical care Ferguson et al, 2020
critical_fraction_40_49 0.063 φcrit(40-49) Fraction of hospitalised individuals aged 40-49 who need critical care Ferguson et al, 2020
critical_fraction_50_59 0.122 φcrit(50-59) Fraction of hospitalised individuals aged 50-59 who need critical care Ferguson et al, 2020
critical_fraction_60_69 0.274 φcrit(60-69) Fraction of hospitalised individuals aged 60-69 who need critical care Ferguson et al, 2020
critical_fraction_70_79 0.432 φcrit(70-79) Fraction of hospitalised individuals aged 70-79 who need critical care Ferguson et al, 2020
critical_fraction_80 0.709 φcrit(80) Fraction of hospitalised individuals aged 80+ who need critical care Ferguson et al, 2020
fatality_fraction_0_9 0.33 φdeath(0-9) Fraction of fatalities amongst individuals in critical care aged 0-9 Lu et al. 2020, Dong et al. 2020
fatality_fraction_10_19 0.25 φdeath(10-19) Fraction of fatalities amongst individuals in critical care aged 10-19 Lu et al. 2020, Dong et al. 2020
fatality_fraction_20_29 0.5 φdeath(20-29) Fraction of fatalities amongst individuals in critical care aged 20-29 Ferguson et al, 2020
fatality_fraction_30_39 0.5 φdeath(30-39) Fraction of fatalities amongst individuals in critical care aged 30-39 Ferguson et al, 2020
fatality_fraction_40_49 0.5 φdeath(40-49) Fraction of fatalities amongst individuals in critical care aged 40-49 Yang et al 2020
fatality_fraction_50_59 0.69 φdeath(50-59) Fraction of fatalities amongst individuals in critical care aged 50-59 Yang et al 2020
fatality_fraction_60_69 0.65 φdeath(60-69) Fraction of fatalities amongst individuals in critical care aged 60-69 Yang et al 2020
fatality_fraction_70_79 0.88 φdeath(70-79) Fraction of fatalities amongst individuals in critical care aged 70-79 Yang et al 2020
fatality_fraction_80 1 φdeath(80) Fraction of fatalities amongst individuals in critical care aged 80+ Yang et al 2020
mean_time_hospitalised_recovery 8.75 μhosp,rec Mean time to recover if hospitalised Personal communication with SPI-M; data soon to be published
sd_time_hospitalised_recovery 8.75 σhosp,rec Standard deviation of time to recover if hospitalised Personal communication with SPI-M; data soon to be published
mean_time_critical_survive 18.8 μcrit,surv Mean time to survive if critical Personal communication with SPI-M; data soon to be published
sd_time_critical_survive 12.21 σcrit,surv Standard deviation of time to survive if critical Personal communication with SPI-M; data soon to be published
location_death_icu_0_9 1 φICU(0-9) Proportion of individuals in 0-9 year olds with critical symptoms that reach critical care (the remaining proportion die outside of critical care; note that the remaining proportion are marked as being hospitalised in the transmission and timeseries files) -
location_death_icu_10_19 1 φICU(10-19) Proportion of individuals in 10-19 year olds with critical symptoms that reach critical care (the remaining proportion die outside of critical care; note that the remaining proportion are marked as being hospitalised in the transmission and timeseries files) -
location_death_icu_20_29 0.9 φICU(20-29) Proportion of individuals in 20-29 year olds with critical symptoms that reach critical care (the remaining proportion die outside of critical care; note that the remaining proportion are marked as being hospitalised in the transmission and timeseries files) -
location_death_icu_30_39 0.9 φICU(30-39) Proportion of individuals in 30-39 year olds with critical symptoms that reach critical care (the remaining proportion die outside of critical care; note that the remaining proportion are marked as being hospitalised in the transmission and timeseries files) -
location_death_icu_40_49 0.8 φICU(40-49) Proportion of individuals in 40-49 year olds with critical symptoms that reach critical care (the remaining proportion die outside of critical care; note that the remaining proportion are marked as being hospitalised in the transmission and timeseries files) -
location_death_icu_50_59 0.8 φICU(50-59) Proportion of individuals in 50-59 year olds with critical symptoms that reach critical care (the remaining proportion die outside of critical care; note that the remaining proportion are marked as being hospitalised in the transmission and timeseries files) -
location_death_icu_60_69 0.4 φICU(60-69) Proportion of individuals in 60-69 year olds with critical symptoms that reach critical care (the remaining proportion die outside of critical care; note that the remaining proportion are marked as being hospitalised in the transmission and timeseries files) -
location_death_icu_70_79 0.4 φICU(70-79) Proportion of individuals in 70-79 year olds with critical symptoms that reach critical care (the remaining proportion die outside of critical care; note that the remaining proportion are marked as being hospitalised in the transmission and timeseries files) -
location_death_icu_80 0.05 φICU(80) Proportion of individuals in 80+ year olds with critical symptoms that reach critical care (the remaining proportion die outside of critical care; note that the remaining proportion are marked as being hospitalised in the transmission and timeseries files) -