diff --git a/src/dump.c b/src/dump.c
index 0c279b43d1c19..9d4ea3108d05c 100644
--- a/src/dump.c
+++ b/src/dump.c
@@ -246,12 +246,47 @@ static int type_recursively_external(jl_datatype_t *dt) JL_NOTSAFEPOINT
     return 1;
 }
 
+// When we infer external method instances, ensure they link back to the
+// package. Otherwise they might be, e.g., for external macros
+static int has_backedge_to_worklist(jl_method_instance_t *mi, htable_t *visited)
+{
+    void **bp = ptrhash_bp(visited, mi);
+    // HT_NOTFOUND: not yet analyzed
+    // HT_NOTFOUND + 1: doesn't link back
+    // HT_NOTFOUND + 2: does link back
+    if (*bp != HT_NOTFOUND)
+        return (char*)*bp - (char*)HT_NOTFOUND - 1;
+    *bp = (void*)((char*)HT_NOTFOUND + 1);  // preliminarily mark as "not found"
+    jl_module_t *mod = mi->def.module;
+    if (jl_is_method(mod))
+        mod = ((jl_method_t*)mod)->module;
+    assert(jl_is_module(mod));
+    if (mi->precompiled || module_in_worklist(mod)) {
+        *bp = (void*)((char*)HT_NOTFOUND + 2);      // found
+        return 1;
+    }
+    if (!mi->backedges) {
+        return 0;
+    }
+    size_t i, n = jl_array_len(mi->backedges);
+    for (i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+        jl_method_instance_t *be = (jl_method_instance_t*)jl_array_ptr_ref(mi->backedges, i);
+        if (has_backedge_to_worklist(be, visited)) {
+            *bp = (void*)((char*)HT_NOTFOUND + 2);  // found
+            return 1;
+        }
+    }
+    return 0;
+}
+
 // given the list of MethodInstances that were inferred during the
 // build, select those that are external and have at least one
 // relocatable CodeInstance.
 static size_t queue_external_mis(jl_array_t *list)
 {
     size_t i, n = 0;
+    htable_t visited;
+    htable_new(&visited, 0);
     if (list) {
         assert(jl_is_array(list));
         size_t n0 = jl_array_len(list);
@@ -268,13 +303,16 @@ static size_t queue_external_mis(jl_array_t *list)
                         ci = ci->next;
                     }
                     if (relocatable && ptrhash_get(&external_mis, mi) == HT_NOTFOUND) {
-                        ptrhash_put(&external_mis, mi, mi);
-                        n++;
+                        if (has_backedge_to_worklist(mi, &visited)) {
+                            ptrhash_put(&external_mis, mi, mi);
+                            n++;
+                        }
                     }
                 }
             }
         }
     }
+    htable_free(&visited);
     return n;
 }
 
diff --git a/src/gf.c b/src/gf.c
index 101c2bd952708..91d51f643b7dd 100644
--- a/src/gf.c
+++ b/src/gf.c
@@ -2248,6 +2248,7 @@ JL_DLLEXPORT int jl_compile_hint(jl_tupletype_t *types)
     if (mi == NULL)
         return 0;
     JL_GC_PROMISE_ROOTED(mi);
+    mi->precompiled = 1;
     if (jl_generating_output()) {
         jl_compile_now(mi);
         // In addition to full compilation of the compilation-signature, if `types` is more specific (e.g. due to nospecialize),
@@ -2262,6 +2263,7 @@ JL_DLLEXPORT int jl_compile_hint(jl_tupletype_t *types)
             types2 = jl_type_intersection_env((jl_value_t*)types, (jl_value_t*)mi->def.method->sig, &tpenv2);
             jl_method_instance_t *li2 = jl_specializations_get_linfo(mi->def.method, (jl_value_t*)types2, tpenv2);
             JL_GC_POP();
+            li2->precompiled = 1;
             if (jl_rettype_inferred(li2, world, world) == jl_nothing)
                 (void)jl_type_infer(li2, world, 1);
             if (jl_typeinf_func && mi->def.method->primary_world <= tworld) {
diff --git a/src/jltypes.c b/src/jltypes.c
index cb9141dd50fd4..a24e9f7e488bd 100644
--- a/src/jltypes.c
+++ b/src/jltypes.c
@@ -2466,7 +2466,7 @@ void jl_init_types(void) JL_GC_DISABLED
     jl_method_instance_type =
         jl_new_datatype(jl_symbol("MethodInstance"), core,
                         jl_any_type, jl_emptysvec,
-                        jl_perm_symsvec(8,
+                        jl_perm_symsvec(9,
                             "def",
                             "specTypes",
                             "sparam_vals",
@@ -2474,8 +2474,9 @@ void jl_init_types(void) JL_GC_DISABLED
                             "backedges",
                             "callbacks",
                             "cache",
-                            "inInference"),
-                        jl_svec(8,
+                            "inInference",
+                            "precompiled"),
+                        jl_svec(9,
                             jl_new_struct(jl_uniontype_type, jl_method_type, jl_module_type),
                             jl_any_type,
                             jl_simplevector_type,
@@ -2483,6 +2484,7 @@ void jl_init_types(void) JL_GC_DISABLED
                             jl_any_type,
                             jl_any_type,
                             jl_any_type,
+                            jl_bool_type,
                             jl_bool_type),
                         jl_emptysvec,
                         0, 1, 3);
diff --git a/src/julia.h b/src/julia.h
index fbaef8d963007..afb0d00630dbd 100644
--- a/src/julia.h
+++ b/src/julia.h
@@ -361,6 +361,7 @@ struct _jl_method_instance_t {
     jl_array_t *callbacks; // list of callback functions to inform external caches about invalidations
     _Atomic(struct _jl_code_instance_t*) cache;
     uint8_t inInference; // flags to tell if inference is running on this object
+    uint8_t precompiled; // true if this instance was generated by an explicit `precompile(...)` call
 };
 
 // OpaqueClosure
diff --git a/src/method.c b/src/method.c
index e8a8c6e763d9b..7325670bd76a4 100644
--- a/src/method.c
+++ b/src/method.c
@@ -439,6 +439,7 @@ JL_DLLEXPORT jl_method_instance_t *jl_new_method_instance_uninit(void)
     li->callbacks = NULL;
     jl_atomic_store_relaxed(&li->cache, NULL);
     li->inInference = 0;
+    li->precompiled = 0;
     return li;
 }