From a3b19fd8d7d59476785dbb642f1fd18dc164fab1 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Patrick Duffy Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2023 15:03:27 -0600 Subject: [PATCH 1/2] Update cost_reductions.yaml Adding updates including cost increases reported by industry, floating plant scale, and updated learning curves --- .../osw_2023/cost_reductions.yaml | 169 +++++++++++++----- 1 file changed, 124 insertions(+), 45 deletions(-) diff --git a/NRWAL/analysis_library/osw_2023/cost_reductions.yaml b/NRWAL/analysis_library/osw_2023/cost_reductions.yaml index 11fb04b..45935e6 100644 --- a/NRWAL/analysis_library/osw_2023/cost_reductions.yaml +++ b/NRWAL/analysis_library/osw_2023/cost_reductions.yaml @@ -1,51 +1,130 @@ # As of June 2023, all years are COD! NOT FID! # ncf values are 0 because we will model directly -# capex reductions are based on learning rates of 8.8% (fixed) and 11.5% (float) (matches FORCE Report) -# floating capex trajectory has a scaling factor of 3 (cite Oregon study) +# mid scennario capex reductions based on learning rates of 7.3% (fixed) and +# 10.2% (float) +# advanced and conservative scenarios experience factor = b0+/-bse +# regression variables included turbine rating (effects excluded from LR) +# floating capex trajectory has a scaling factor of 2.5 (cite FORCE Report) # opex trajectories derived from Wiser et al. (2021) Expert Elicitation by -# assuming same rate of reduction from 2019-2035 applies 2022 to 2050 and -# taking a curve in the same shape as the capex learning curve, but with a -# final magnitude of reduction based on the value obatined from wiser -# floating opex trajectory has a scaling factor of 2 to approximate the same -# commercial maturity date as the floating capex trajectory +# assuming same magnitude of reduction in 2035 (adjusted relative to 2022) +# but scaling the capex learning curve to match that value in 2035 -fixed: - capex_2025: 0.088231622 - capex_2030: 0.189748932 - capex_2035: 0.233403656 - capex_2040: 0.268009357 - capex_2045: 0.298369019 - capex_2050: 0.323479782 - ncf_2025: 0.0 - ncf_2030: 0.0 - ncf_2035: 0.0 - ncf_2040: 0.0 - ncf_2045: 0.0 - ncf_2050: 0.0 - opex_2025: 0.105011739 - opex_2030: 0.225835873 - opex_2035: 0.277792965 - opex_2040: 0.318980067 - opex_2045: 0.355113608 - opex_2050: 0.385 -floating: - capex_2025: -0.788072662 - capex_2030: -0.306301388 - capex_2035: -0.03603437 - capex_2040: 0.096442262 - capex_2045: 0.17825835 - capex_2050: 0.231807916 - ncf_2025: 0.0 - ncf_2030: 0.0 - ncf_2035: 0.0 - ncf_2040: 0.0 - ncf_2045: 0.0 - ncf_2050: 0.0 - opex_2025: -0.387946477 - opex_2030: -0.144639971 - opex_2035: -0.008148388 - opex_2040: 0.058755614 - opex_2045: 0.100074778 - opex_2050: 0.127118644 \ No newline at end of file +# all trajectories have short term cost adders to account for higher costs +# reported by industry. + +fixed_mid_scenario: + capex_2025: -0.156806259 + capex_2030: 0.158986365 + capex_2035: 0.196455523 + capex_2040: 0.226426582 + capex_2045: 0.25292737 + capex_2050: 0.275000051 + ncf_2025: 0 + ncf_2030: 0 + ncf_2035: 0 + ncf_2040: 0 + ncf_2045: 0 + ncf_2050: 0 + opex_2025: -0.162726796 + opex_2030: 0.146126185 + opex_2035: 0.180564516 + opex_2040: 0.208111259 + opex_2045: 0.232468436 + opex_2050: 0.252755689 +fixed_conservative_scenario: + capex_2025: -0.255881389 + capex_2030: -0.152322165 + capex_2035: 0.121762357 + capex_2040: 0.141357556 + capex_2045: 0.158942439 + capex_2050: 0.1737834 + ncf_2025: 0 + ncf_2030: 0 + ncf_2035: 0 + ncf_2040: 0 + ncf_2045: 0 + ncf_2050: 0 + opex_2025: -0.274954562 + opex_2030: -0.194549838 + opex_2035: 0.069122564 + opex_2040: 0.080246449 + opex_2045: 0.090229109 + opex_2050: 0.098654088 +fixed_advanced_scenario: + capex_2025: -0.047733637 + capex_2030: 0.217880507 + capex_2035: 0.266870354 + capex_2040: 0.305374904 + capex_2045: 0.338904611 + capex_2050: 0.366454243 + ncf_2025: 0 + ncf_2030: 0 + ncf_2035: 0 + ncf_2040: 0 + ncf_2045: 0 + ncf_2050: 0 + opex_2025: -0.055236627 + opex_2030: 0.201895239 + opex_2035: 0.247290841 + opex_2040: 0.282970423 + opex_2045: 0.314040152 + opex_2050: 0.339568546 +floating_mid_scenario: + capex_2025: -1.104037385 + capex_2030: -0.360733267 + capex_2035: -0.097373909 + capex_2040: 0.029708329 + capex_2045: 0.104001537 + capex_2050: 0.145849628 + ncf_2025: 0 + ncf_2030: 0 + ncf_2035: 0 + ncf_2040: 0 + ncf_2045: 0 + ncf_2050: 0 + opex_2025: -0.113229956 + opex_2030: 0.212524235 + opex_2035: 0.261652542 + opex_2040: 0.285359068 + opex_2045: 0.299218076 + opex_2050: 0.307024618 +floating_conservative_scenario: + capex_2025: -1.384849833 + capex_2030: -0.954067047 + capex_2035: -0.488069313 + capex_2040: -0.377027157 + capex_2045: -0.30961593 + capex_2050: -0.270734415 + ncf_2025: 0 + ncf_2030: 0 + ncf_2035: 0 + ncf_2040: 0 + ncf_2045: 0 + ncf_2050: 0 + opex_2025: -0.229124445 + opex_2030: -0.114116181 + opex_2035: 0.172759534 + opex_2040: 0.19171695 + opex_2045: 0.203225576 + opex_2050: 0.209863533 +floating_advanced_scenario: + capex_2025: -0.827905943 + capex_2030: -0.077560145 + capex_2035: 0.199817748 + capex_2040: 0.325110179 + capex_2045: 0.395539991 + capex_2050: 0.434247631 + ncf_2025: 0 + ncf_2030: 0 + ncf_2035: 0 + ncf_2040: 0 + ncf_2045: 0 + ncf_2050: 0 + opex_2025: 0.008114326 + opex_2030: 0.273579547 + opex_2035: 0.326927966 + opex_2040: 0.351025608 + opex_2045: 0.364571458 + opex_2050: 0.372016144 From 65fee45f61285a7996190cacf881922adc5b29dd Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Patrick Duffy Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2023 16:20:05 -0600 Subject: [PATCH 2/2] Update cost_reductions.yaml Corrected formating --- .../analysis_library/osw_2023/cost_reductions.yaml | 14 +++++++------- 1 file changed, 7 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) diff --git a/NRWAL/analysis_library/osw_2023/cost_reductions.yaml b/NRWAL/analysis_library/osw_2023/cost_reductions.yaml index 45935e6..22733be 100644 --- a/NRWAL/analysis_library/osw_2023/cost_reductions.yaml +++ b/NRWAL/analysis_library/osw_2023/cost_reductions.yaml @@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ # all trajectories have short term cost adders to account for higher costs # reported by industry. -fixed_mid_scenario: +fixed_mid_scenario: capex_2025: -0.156806259 capex_2030: 0.158986365 capex_2035: 0.196455523 @@ -32,8 +32,8 @@ fixed_mid_scenario: opex_2035: 0.180564516 opex_2040: 0.208111259 opex_2045: 0.232468436 - opex_2050: 0.252755689 -fixed_conservative_scenario: + opex_2050: 0.252755689 +fixed_conservative_scenario: capex_2025: -0.255881389 capex_2030: -0.152322165 capex_2035: 0.121762357 @@ -52,7 +52,7 @@ fixed_conservative_scenario: opex_2040: 0.080246449 opex_2045: 0.090229109 opex_2050: 0.098654088 -fixed_advanced_scenario: +fixed_advanced_scenario: capex_2025: -0.047733637 capex_2030: 0.217880507 capex_2035: 0.266870354 @@ -71,7 +71,7 @@ fixed_advanced_scenario: opex_2040: 0.282970423 opex_2045: 0.314040152 opex_2050: 0.339568546 -floating_mid_scenario: +floating_mid_scenario: capex_2025: -1.104037385 capex_2030: -0.360733267 capex_2035: -0.097373909 @@ -90,7 +90,7 @@ floating_mid_scenario: opex_2040: 0.285359068 opex_2045: 0.299218076 opex_2050: 0.307024618 -floating_conservative_scenario: +floating_conservative_scenario: capex_2025: -1.384849833 capex_2030: -0.954067047 capex_2035: -0.488069313 @@ -109,7 +109,7 @@ floating_conservative_scenario: opex_2040: 0.19171695 opex_2045: 0.203225576 opex_2050: 0.209863533 -floating_advanced_scenario: +floating_advanced_scenario: capex_2025: -0.827905943 capex_2030: -0.077560145 capex_2035: 0.199817748