From 05c676ab0832fd69f37d2a8d4e6d9e416a6c9337 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Patrick Duffy Date: Tue, 22 Aug 2023 11:18:23 -0600 Subject: [PATCH] Update cost_reductions.yaml Add trajectories for all years --- .../osw_2023/cost_reductions.yaml | 558 +++++++++++++++--- 1 file changed, 486 insertions(+), 72 deletions(-) diff --git a/NRWAL/analysis_library/osw_2023/cost_reductions.yaml b/NRWAL/analysis_library/osw_2023/cost_reductions.yaml index 22733be..f3ed84a 100644 --- a/NRWAL/analysis_library/osw_2023/cost_reductions.yaml +++ b/NRWAL/analysis_library/osw_2023/cost_reductions.yaml @@ -15,116 +15,530 @@ # reported by industry. fixed_mid_scenario: - capex_2025: -0.156806259 - capex_2030: 0.158986365 - capex_2035: 0.196455523 - capex_2040: 0.226426582 - capex_2045: 0.25292737 - capex_2050: 0.275000051 + capex_2022: -0.05000 + capex_2023: -0.06822 + capex_2024: -0.10001 + capex_2025: -0.15681 + capex_2026: -0.13593 + capex_2027: -0.03851 + capex_2028: 0.03086 + capex_2029: 0.09587 + capex_2030: 0.15899 + capex_2031: 0.16961 + capex_2032: 0.17358 + capex_2033: 0.18212 + capex_2034: 0.18938 + capex_2035: 0.19646 + capex_2036: 0.20117 + capex_2037: 0.20853 + capex_2038: 0.21496 + capex_2039: 0.22136 + capex_2040: 0.22643 + capex_2041: 0.23265 + capex_2042: 0.23804 + capex_2043: 0.24320 + capex_2044: 0.24807 + capex_2045: 0.25293 + capex_2046: 0.25722 + capex_2047: 0.26150 + capex_2048: 0.26580 + capex_2049: 0.27044 + capex_2050: 0.27500 + ncf_2022: 0 + ncf_2023: 0 + ncf_2024: 0 ncf_2025: 0 + ncf_2026: 0 + ncf_2027: 0 + ncf_2028: 0 + ncf_2029: 0 ncf_2030: 0 + ncf_2031: 0 + ncf_2032: 0 + ncf_2033: 0 + ncf_2034: 0 ncf_2035: 0 + ncf_2036: 0 + ncf_2037: 0 + ncf_2038: 0 + ncf_2039: 0 ncf_2040: 0 + ncf_2041: 0 + ncf_2042: 0 + ncf_2043: 0 + ncf_2044: 0 ncf_2045: 0 + ncf_2046: 0 + ncf_2047: 0 + ncf_2048: 0 + ncf_2049: 0 ncf_2050: 0 - opex_2025: -0.162726796 - opex_2030: 0.146126185 - opex_2035: 0.180564516 - opex_2040: 0.208111259 - opex_2045: 0.232468436 - opex_2050: 0.252755689 + opex_2022: -0.05000 + opex_2023: -0.07079 + opex_2024: -0.10406 + opex_2025: -0.16273 + opex_2026: -0.14354 + opex_2027: -0.04753 + opex_2028: 0.02028 + opex_2029: 0.08407 + opex_2030: 0.14613 + opex_2031: 0.15589 + opex_2032: 0.15954 + opex_2033: 0.16739 + opex_2034: 0.17406 + opex_2035: 0.18056 + opex_2036: 0.18490 + opex_2037: 0.19166 + opex_2038: 0.19758 + opex_2039: 0.20345 + opex_2040: 0.20811 + opex_2041: 0.21383 + opex_2042: 0.21879 + opex_2043: 0.22353 + opex_2044: 0.22800 + opex_2045: 0.23247 + opex_2046: 0.23642 + opex_2047: 0.24035 + opex_2048: 0.24430 + opex_2049: 0.24856 + opex_2050: 0.25276 fixed_conservative_scenario: - capex_2025: -0.255881389 - capex_2030: -0.152322165 - capex_2035: 0.121762357 - capex_2040: 0.141357556 - capex_2045: 0.158942439 - capex_2050: 0.1737834 + capex_2022: -0.05000 + capex_2023: -0.08101 + capex_2024: -0.17002 + capex_2025: -0.25588 + capex_2026: -0.34304 + capex_2027: -0.33223 + capex_2028: -0.27011 + capex_2029: -0.21065 + capex_2030: -0.15232 + capex_2031: -0.09554 + capex_2032: -0.04300 + capex_2033: 0.01250 + capex_2034: 0.06718 + capex_2035: 0.12176 + capex_2036: 0.12483 + capex_2037: 0.12962 + capex_2038: 0.13383 + capex_2039: 0.13802 + capex_2040: 0.14136 + capex_2041: 0.14546 + capex_2042: 0.14903 + capex_2043: 0.15246 + capex_2044: 0.15570 + capex_2045: 0.15894 + capex_2046: 0.16182 + capex_2047: 0.16469 + capex_2048: 0.16757 + capex_2049: 0.17070 + capex_2050: 0.17378 + ncf_2022: 0 + ncf_2023: 0 + ncf_2024: 0 ncf_2025: 0 + ncf_2026: 0 + ncf_2027: 0 + ncf_2028: 0 + ncf_2029: 0 ncf_2030: 0 + ncf_2031: 0 + ncf_2032: 0 + ncf_2033: 0 + ncf_2034: 0 ncf_2035: 0 + ncf_2036: 0 + ncf_2037: 0 + ncf_2038: 0 + ncf_2039: 0 ncf_2040: 0 + ncf_2041: 0 + ncf_2042: 0 + ncf_2043: 0 + ncf_2044: 0 ncf_2045: 0 + ncf_2046: 0 + ncf_2047: 0 + ncf_2048: 0 + ncf_2049: 0 ncf_2050: 0 - opex_2025: -0.274954562 - opex_2030: -0.194549838 - opex_2035: 0.069122564 - opex_2040: 0.080246449 - opex_2045: 0.090229109 - opex_2050: 0.098654088 + opex_2022: -0.05000 + opex_2023: -0.08922 + opex_2024: -0.18298 + opex_2025: -0.27495 + opex_2026: -0.36767 + opex_2027: -0.36153 + opex_2028: -0.30465 + opex_2029: -0.24928 + opex_2030: -0.19455 + opex_2031: -0.14070 + opex_2032: -0.08926 + opex_2033: -0.03614 + opex_2034: 0.01652 + opex_2035: 0.06912 + opex_2036: 0.07086 + opex_2037: 0.07358 + opex_2038: 0.07597 + opex_2039: 0.07835 + opex_2040: 0.08025 + opex_2041: 0.08258 + opex_2042: 0.08460 + opex_2043: 0.08655 + opex_2044: 0.08839 + opex_2045: 0.09023 + opex_2046: 0.09186 + opex_2047: 0.09349 + opex_2048: 0.09513 + opex_2049: 0.09690 + opex_2050: 0.09865 fixed_advanced_scenario: - capex_2025: -0.047733637 - capex_2030: 0.217880507 - capex_2035: 0.266870354 - capex_2040: 0.305374904 - capex_2045: 0.338904611 - capex_2050: 0.366454243 + capex_2022: 0.00000 + capex_2023: -0.00519 + capex_2024: -0.02981 + capex_2025: -0.04773 + capex_2026: 0.03083 + capex_2027: 0.10446 + capex_2028: 0.18050 + capex_2029: 0.20051 + capex_2030: 0.21788 + capex_2031: 0.23187 + capex_2032: 0.23707 + capex_2033: 0.24824 + capex_2034: 0.25769 + capex_2035: 0.26687 + capex_2036: 0.27297 + capex_2037: 0.28245 + capex_2038: 0.29072 + capex_2039: 0.29891 + capex_2040: 0.30537 + capex_2041: 0.31329 + capex_2042: 0.32013 + capex_2043: 0.32666 + capex_2044: 0.33279 + capex_2045: 0.33890 + capex_2046: 0.34429 + capex_2047: 0.34965 + capex_2048: 0.35501 + capex_2049: 0.36079 + capex_2050: 0.36645 + ncf_2022: 0 + ncf_2023: 0 + ncf_2024: 0 ncf_2025: 0 + ncf_2026: 0 + ncf_2027: 0 + ncf_2028: 0 + ncf_2029: 0 ncf_2030: 0 + ncf_2031: 0 + ncf_2032: 0 + ncf_2033: 0 + ncf_2034: 0 ncf_2035: 0 + ncf_2036: 0 + ncf_2037: 0 + ncf_2038: 0 + ncf_2039: 0 ncf_2040: 0 + ncf_2041: 0 + ncf_2042: 0 + ncf_2043: 0 + ncf_2044: 0 ncf_2045: 0 + ncf_2046: 0 + ncf_2047: 0 + ncf_2048: 0 + ncf_2049: 0 ncf_2050: 0 - opex_2025: -0.055236627 - opex_2030: 0.201895239 - opex_2035: 0.247290841 - opex_2040: 0.282970423 - opex_2045: 0.314040152 - opex_2050: 0.339568546 + opex_2022: 0.00000 + opex_2023: -0.00848 + opex_2024: -0.03496 + opex_2025: -0.05524 + opex_2026: 0.02123 + opex_2027: 0.09313 + opex_2028: 0.16726 + opex_2029: 0.18580 + opex_2030: 0.20190 + opex_2031: 0.21486 + opex_2032: 0.21968 + opex_2033: 0.23003 + opex_2034: 0.23878 + opex_2035: 0.24729 + opex_2036: 0.25294 + opex_2037: 0.26173 + opex_2038: 0.26939 + opex_2039: 0.27698 + opex_2040: 0.28297 + opex_2041: 0.29031 + opex_2042: 0.29665 + opex_2043: 0.30269 + opex_2044: 0.30838 + opex_2045: 0.31404 + opex_2046: 0.31903 + opex_2047: 0.32399 + opex_2048: 0.32896 + opex_2049: 0.33432 + opex_2050: 0.33957 floating_mid_scenario: - capex_2025: -1.104037385 - capex_2030: -0.360733267 - capex_2035: -0.097373909 - capex_2040: 0.029708329 - capex_2045: 0.104001537 - capex_2050: 0.145849628 + capex_2022: -1.55000 + capex_2023: -1.22449 + capex_2024: -1.19274 + capex_2025: -1.10404 + capex_2026: -0.98002 + capex_2027: -0.72542 + capex_2028: -0.52021 + capex_2029: -0.41709 + capex_2030: -0.36073 + capex_2031: -0.24145 + capex_2032: -0.18821 + capex_2033: -0.12556 + capex_2034: -0.10504 + capex_2035: -0.09737 + capex_2036: -0.02811 + capex_2037: -0.00621 + capex_2038: 0.01041 + capex_2039: 0.02688 + capex_2040: 0.02971 + capex_2041: 0.05471 + capex_2042: 0.06685 + capex_2043: 0.07939 + capex_2044: 0.09182 + capex_2045: 0.10400 + capex_2046: 0.11575 + capex_2047: 0.12693 + capex_2048: 0.13747 + capex_2049: 0.14737 + capex_2050: 0.14585 + ncf_2022: 0 + ncf_2023: 0 + ncf_2024: 0 ncf_2025: 0 + ncf_2026: 0 + ncf_2027: 0 + ncf_2028: 0 + ncf_2029: 0 ncf_2030: 0 + ncf_2031: 0 + ncf_2032: 0 + ncf_2033: 0 + ncf_2034: 0 ncf_2035: 0 + ncf_2036: 0 + ncf_2037: 0 + ncf_2038: 0 + ncf_2039: 0 ncf_2040: 0 + ncf_2041: 0 + ncf_2042: 0 + ncf_2043: 0 + ncf_2044: 0 ncf_2045: 0 + ncf_2046: 0 + ncf_2047: 0 + ncf_2048: 0 + ncf_2049: 0 ncf_2050: 0 - opex_2025: -0.113229956 - opex_2030: 0.212524235 - opex_2035: 0.261652542 - opex_2040: 0.285359068 - opex_2045: 0.299218076 - opex_2050: 0.307024618 + opex_2022: -0.05000 + opex_2023: -0.02995 + opex_2024: -0.06470 + opex_2025: -0.11323 + opex_2026: -0.09009 + opex_2027: 0.02248 + opex_2028: 0.10143 + opex_2029: 0.16134 + opex_2030: 0.21252 + opex_2031: 0.23478 + opex_2032: 0.24471 + opex_2033: 0.25640 + opex_2034: 0.26022 + opex_2035: 0.26165 + opex_2036: 0.27457 + opex_2037: 0.27866 + opex_2038: 0.28176 + opex_2039: 0.28483 + opex_2040: 0.28536 + opex_2041: 0.29002 + opex_2042: 0.29229 + opex_2043: 0.29463 + opex_2044: 0.29695 + opex_2045: 0.29922 + opex_2046: 0.30141 + opex_2047: 0.30349 + opex_2048: 0.30546 + opex_2049: 0.30731 + opex_2050: 0.30702 floating_conservative_scenario: - capex_2025: -1.384849833 - capex_2030: -0.954067047 - capex_2035: -0.488069313 - capex_2040: -0.377027157 - capex_2045: -0.30961593 - capex_2050: -0.270734415 + capex_2022: -1.55000 + capex_2023: -1.35632 + capex_2024: -1.40121 + capex_2025: -1.38485 + capex_2026: -1.39682 + capex_2027: -1.26885 + capex_2028: -1.10063 + capex_2029: -1.00908 + capex_2030: -0.95407 + capex_2031: -0.80835 + capex_2032: -0.71454 + capex_2033: -0.61204 + capex_2034: -0.54461 + capex_2035: -0.48807 + capex_2036: -0.42818 + capex_2037: -0.40893 + capex_2038: -0.39422 + capex_2039: -0.37955 + capex_2040: -0.37703 + capex_2041: -0.35456 + capex_2042: -0.34358 + capex_2043: -0.33217 + capex_2044: -0.32081 + capex_2045: -0.30962 + capex_2046: -0.29877 + capex_2047: -0.28840 + capex_2048: -0.27857 + capex_2049: -0.26931 + capex_2050: -0.27073 + ncf_2022: 0 + ncf_2023: 0 + ncf_2024: 0 ncf_2025: 0 + ncf_2026: 0 + ncf_2027: 0 + ncf_2028: 0 + ncf_2029: 0 ncf_2030: 0 + ncf_2031: 0 + ncf_2032: 0 + ncf_2033: 0 + ncf_2034: 0 ncf_2035: 0 + ncf_2036: 0 + ncf_2037: 0 + ncf_2038: 0 + ncf_2039: 0 ncf_2040: 0 + ncf_2041: 0 + ncf_2042: 0 + ncf_2043: 0 + ncf_2044: 0 ncf_2045: 0 + ncf_2046: 0 + ncf_2047: 0 + ncf_2048: 0 + ncf_2049: 0 ncf_2050: 0 - opex_2025: -0.229124445 - opex_2030: -0.114116181 - opex_2035: 0.172759534 - opex_2040: 0.19171695 - opex_2045: 0.203225576 - opex_2050: 0.209863533 + opex_2022: -0.05000 + opex_2023: -0.05840 + opex_2024: -0.14899 + opex_2025: -0.22912 + opex_2026: -0.31409 + opex_2027: -0.29225 + opex_2028: -0.22206 + opex_2029: -0.16497 + opex_2030: -0.11412 + opex_2031: -0.04778 + opex_2032: 0.00970 + opex_2033: 0.06867 + opex_2034: 0.12164 + opex_2035: 0.17276 + opex_2036: 0.18298 + opex_2037: 0.18627 + opex_2038: 0.18878 + opex_2039: 0.19129 + opex_2040: 0.19172 + opex_2041: 0.19555 + opex_2042: 0.19743 + opex_2043: 0.19938 + opex_2044: 0.20132 + opex_2045: 0.20323 + opex_2046: 0.20508 + opex_2047: 0.20685 + opex_2048: 0.20853 + opex_2049: 0.21011 + opex_2050: 0.20986 floating_advanced_scenario: - capex_2025: -0.827905943 - capex_2030: -0.077560145 - capex_2035: 0.199817748 - capex_2040: 0.325110179 - capex_2045: 0.395539991 - capex_2050: 0.434247631 + capex_2022: -1.50000 + capex_2023: -1.04591 + capex_2024: -0.99043 + capex_2025: -0.82791 + capex_2026: -0.62625 + capex_2027: -0.36968 + capex_2028: -0.14327 + capex_2029: -0.08453 + capex_2030: -0.07756 + capex_2031: 0.05089 + capex_2032: 0.10675 + capex_2033: 0.17125 + capex_2034: 0.19207 + capex_2035: 0.19982 + capex_2036: 0.26884 + capex_2037: 0.29030 + capex_2038: 0.30647 + capex_2039: 0.32239 + capex_2040: 0.32511 + capex_2041: 0.34905 + capex_2042: 0.36058 + capex_2043: 0.37245 + capex_2044: 0.38414 + capex_2045: 0.39554 + capex_2046: 0.40648 + capex_2047: 0.41683 + capex_2048: 0.42656 + capex_2049: 0.43564 + capex_2050: 0.43425 + ncf_2022: 0 + ncf_2023: 0 + ncf_2024: 0 ncf_2025: 0 + ncf_2026: 0 + ncf_2027: 0 + ncf_2028: 0 + ncf_2029: 0 ncf_2030: 0 + ncf_2031: 0 + ncf_2032: 0 + ncf_2033: 0 + ncf_2034: 0 ncf_2035: 0 + ncf_2036: 0 + ncf_2037: 0 + ncf_2038: 0 + ncf_2039: 0 ncf_2040: 0 + ncf_2041: 0 + ncf_2042: 0 + ncf_2043: 0 + ncf_2044: 0 ncf_2045: 0 + ncf_2046: 0 + ncf_2047: 0 + ncf_2048: 0 + ncf_2049: 0 ncf_2050: 0 - opex_2025: 0.008114326 - opex_2030: 0.273579547 - opex_2035: 0.326927966 - opex_2040: 0.351025608 - opex_2045: 0.364571458 - opex_2050: 0.372016144 + opex_2022: 0.00000 + opex_2023: 0.04695 + opex_2024: 0.01724 + opex_2025: 0.00811 + opex_2026: 0.08728 + opex_2027: 0.17701 + opex_2028: 0.26094 + opex_2029: 0.27224 + opex_2030: 0.27358 + opex_2031: 0.29829 + opex_2032: 0.30903 + opex_2033: 0.32143 + opex_2034: 0.32544 + opex_2035: 0.32693 + opex_2036: 0.34020 + opex_2037: 0.34433 + opex_2038: 0.34744 + opex_2039: 0.35050 + opex_2040: 0.35103 + opex_2041: 0.35563 + opex_2042: 0.35785 + opex_2043: 0.36013 + opex_2044: 0.36238 + opex_2045: 0.36457 + opex_2046: 0.36667 + opex_2047: 0.36867 + opex_2048: 0.37054 + opex_2049: 0.37228 + opex_2050: 0.37202