diff --git a/report/main.tex b/report/main.tex index a6e1e41..3918c65 100644 --- a/report/main.tex +++ b/report/main.tex @@ -178,7 +178,7 @@ \section{Introduction} \item Ensure that contracted power is \alert{additional} (i.e. leads to new capacity). \item Ensure that power comes from the \alert{same bidding zone}. \item Enable technology-neutral procurement of \alert{carbon-free} rather than renewable technologies - (such as advanced “clean dispatchable” power generation and long-duration energy storage). + (such as advanced clean dispatchable power generation and long-duration energy storage). \end{itemize} \end{frame} @@ -229,8 +229,8 @@ \section{Introduction} In particular, we focus our analysis on the following quesitons: \begin{itemize} \item How can companies following 24/7~CFE procurement achieve hourly matching? - \item What is the cost premium of 24/7~CFE versus the 100\% annual matching? - \item To which extent can technologies, such as long-duration storage or advanced dispatchable + \item What is the cost premium of 24/7~CFE versus 100\% annual matching? + \item To what extent can technologies, such as long-duration storage or advanced dispatchable clean generators, help to achieve the 24/7~CFE goal? \item To which extent can 24/7~CFE contribute to reductions in CO$_2$ emissions intensity of buyers' consumption? @@ -250,9 +250,12 @@ \section{Introduction} \noindent\fbox{% \parbox{\textwidth}{% \begin{enumerate} - \item Reaching carbon-free energy (CFE) for 80-90\% of the time - has comparable cost and system impact to annually matching 100\% renewable energy. - A CFE target of 80-90\% can be met through a combination of wind, solar and batteries. + + \item 24/7~carbon-free energy (CFE) procurement leads to lower emissions for both the buyer and the system, + as well as reducing the needs for flexibility in the rest of the system. + + \item Reaching CFE for 90-95\% of the time can be done with only a small cost premium compared to annually matching + 100\% renewable energy. 90-95\% CFE can be met by supplementing wind and solar with battery storage. \item Reaching 100\% CFE target is possible but costly with existing renewable and storage technologies, with costs increasing rapidly above 95\%. @@ -260,11 +263,8 @@ \section{Introduction} \item 100\% CFE target could have a much smaller cost premium if long duration storage or clean dispatchable technologies like advanced geothermal are available. - \item 24/7~CFE procurement leads to lower emissions for both the buyer and the system, - as well as reducing the needs for flexibility in the rest of the system. - \item 24/7~CFE procurement would create an early market for the advanced technologies, - stimulating innovation and learning from which the whole electricity system would profit. + stimulating innovation and learning from which the whole electricity system would benefit. \end{enumerate} }} @@ -295,7 +295,7 @@ \section{Methodology and study design} a widely-used open-source optimization model for the European energy system. \item We encode a set of new equations and routines into the PyPSA-Eur(-Sec), - which allow for modelling a situation when some C\&I electricity consumers + which allow for modelling a situation when some corporate \& industrial (C\&I) electricity consumers commit to a voluntary clean energy procurement. \item We compare 100\% annual matching with renewable energy versus @@ -517,9 +517,8 @@ \section{Methodology and study design} \noindent\fbox{% \parbox{\textwidth}{% Note that the grid CFE factor $CFE_t$ is affected by capacity procured by C\&I consumers. This - introduces a nonconvex term to the optimization problem. We relax the problem by treating - the grid CFE factor as a parameter that is iteratively updated - (starting with $CFE_t =0 \,~\forall t$). + introduces a nonconvex term to the optimization problem. The nonconvexity can be avoided by treating + the grid CFE factor as a parameter that is iteratively updated (starting with $CFE_t =0 \,~\forall t$). Similarly to the \hrefc{https://acee.princeton.edu/24-7/}{Xu et al. (2021)} study, we find that one forward pass (i.e. 2 iterations) yields very good convergence. }} @@ -533,8 +532,7 @@ \section{Methodology and study design} {\small - The excess generation $ex_t$ from the procured resources represents clean electricity over - and above demand of C\&I consumers following 24/7 approach in a particular hour. + The excess generation $ex_t$ from the procured resources represents clean electricity sold to the rest of the grid. The \alert{excess is not counted toward the CFE score} -- and thus it is subtracted on the left-hand side of the eq. (\ref{eqn:CFE}). @@ -554,12 +552,6 @@ \section{Methodology and study design} The constraint (\ref{eqn:excess}) gives the C\&I consumers the flexibility to sell electricity to the regional grid, while avoiding the situation that sales to the grid become significantly larger than supply to the C\&I's own demand. - %This approach facilitates \alert{additionality} -- - %\hrefc{https://www.gstatic.com/gumdrop/sustainability/24x7-carbon-free-energy-methodologies-metrics.pdf}{one of the principles} - %of the 24/7 CFE matching. - %From the modelling perspective, the limit on excess electricity ensures that CFE resources - %procured by C\&I consumers are \emph{additional}, i.e. 24/7 procurement activities - %enable the deployment of clean electricity generation that is new to the grid. }} } @@ -684,11 +676,10 @@ \section{Scenario setup} \begin{frame}{Scenario setup 1/3} \begin{columns}[T] - \begin{column}{7.5cm} + \begin{column}{7.2cm} - \vspace{0.3cm} \centering - + \vspace{0.3cm} \includegraphics[width=7.5cm]{images/elec_s_37.png} {\footnotesize @@ -696,8 +687,8 @@ \section{Scenario setup} } \end{column} - \begin{column}{8cm} - {\small + \begin{column}{8.5cm} + {\footnotesize \begin{itemize} \item In each scenario, we model the full European power system clustered to \alert{37 zones}. @@ -706,12 +697,15 @@ \section{Scenario setup} that straddle different synchronous areas are split to individual bidding zones, such as DK1 (West) and DK2 (East). - \item Consumers following 24/7 approach can be located in either of the \alert{four zones}: + \item Consumers following 24/7 approach can be located in one of the \alert{four zones}: Ireland, Denmark (zone DK1), Germany and the Netherlands. \item We assume that all consumers committed to 24/7 matching, form an alliance and sign contracts with CFE generators so that their aggregated consumption can be matched - on an hour-by-hour basis with clean generation to achieve a given CFE matching score. + on an hour-by-hour basis with clean generation to achieve a given CFE matching score.\footnote + {{\scriptsize In reality, C\&I participants can also pursue hourly matching strategies + independently based on their own specific load profiles. + See \hrefc{https://zenodo.org/record/7082212}{Qingyu \& Jenkins (2022)} study investigating this case.}} \end{itemize} } @@ -725,7 +719,51 @@ \section{Scenario setup} \begin{frame}{Scenario setup 2/3} - {\small + {\footnotesize + + We assume that 24/7 consumers have an access to a wide palette + of carbon-free technologies\footnote{{\scriptsize We consider carbon-free power generation + technologies that we believe can play important roles in facilitating CFE matching on hourly basis, + while enabling deeper decarbonization of electricity systems at the same time. Technology inclusivity is a + \hrefc{https://www.gstatic.com/gumdrop/sustainability/24x7-carbon-free-energy-methodologies-metrics.pdf}{principle} + of the 24/7 CFE methodology.}} that are either available on the European market now + or expected to be available for a commercial scale up in the near future. + We formulate three scenarios grouping generators by a degree of technological + maturity as of now: + + \centering + \begin{table}[h] + \begin{tabular}{ccc} + \hline + \alert{Palette 1} & \alert{Palette 2} & \alert{Palette 3} \\ + \hline + onshore wind & onshore wind & onshore wind \\ + \hline + utility scale solar & utility scale solar & utility scale solar \\ + \hline + battery storage & battery storage & battery storage \\ + \hline + - & LDES\footnote{{\scriptsize Long-duration energy storage (LDES).}} & LDES \\ + \hline + - & - & Allam cycle with CCS\footnote{{\scriptsize Allam cycle is a natural gas power plant + with up to 100\% of carbon capture and sequestration.}} \\ + \hline + - & - & Advanced dispatchable generator\footnote{{\scriptsize A stand-in for clean dispatchable technologies, + such as advanced geothermal (closed-loop) or nuclear systems. See e.g., \hrefc{https://www.eavor.com/}{Eavor} + developing a promising solution for clean baseload \& dispatchable power with a potential + for a commercial scale up in Europe.}} \\ + \end{tabular} + \end{table} + } + \vspace{0.5cm} + +\end{frame} + + + +\begin{frame}{Scenario setup 3/3} + + {\footnotesize \begin{itemize} \item We model various procurement policies and targets. The scenarios include: \\ @@ -734,10 +772,6 @@ \section{Scenario setup} (iii) \alert{A reference case} when 24/7 consumers cover their load purely with grid purchases without any policy regarding the origin of electricity. - \item We conduct an analysis for different rates of participation. The two scenarios - assume that \alert{10\%} and \alert{25\%} of commercial and industrial load - in a given zone participate in 24/7 CFE matching. - \item We focus on two periods: \alert{2025} and \alert{2030}. The two periods differ by \\ (i) Technology cost assumptions, \\ (ii) National renewable expansion pathways,\\ @@ -745,34 +779,12 @@ \section{Scenario setup} age or national policies), \\ (iv) System-wide assumptions, such as price for EU ETS allowances. - \end{itemize} - } -\end{frame} - - - -\begin{frame}{Scenario setup 3/3} + \item We conduct an analysis for different rates of participation. The two scenarios + assume that \alert{10\%} and \alert{25\%} of commercial and industrial load + in a given zone participate in 24/7 CFE matching. - {\small - \begin{itemize} - - \item We assume that 24/7 consumers have an access to a wide palette - of carbon-free technologies that are either available on the European market now - or expected to be available for a commercial scale up in the near future. - - \item We deliberately encode prospective technologies into the analysis. - The \alert{technology inclusivity} is an - \hrefc{https://www.gstatic.com/gumdrop/sustainability/24x7-carbon-free-energy-methodologies-metrics.pdf}{important principle} - of the 24/7 CFE methodology. Thus, we consider carbon-free power generation - technologies that we believe can play important roles in facilitating CFE matching on hourly basis, - while enabling deeper decarbonization of electricity systems at the same time. - - \item We formulate three scenarios grouping generators by a degree of technological - maturity as of now: \\ - \alert{Palette 1}: onshore wind, utility-scale solar, battery storage \\ - \alert{Palette 2}: all above + long-duration energy storage (hydrogen storage system) \\ - \alert{Palette 3}: all above + Allam Cycle natural gas generator with carbon capture and sequestration + - advanced clean dispatchable generator (e.g., advanced geothermal system or advanced nuclear technology) + \item Finally, we conduct an analysis for different (synthetic) load profiles of C\&I participants, which + represent a \alert{'baseload'} (flat), a \alert{'datacenter'}, and an \alert{'industry consumer'} consumption patterns. \end{itemize} } @@ -966,11 +978,8 @@ \section{Data sources and key assumptions} \hrefc{https://file.go.gov.sg/carbon-capture-utilisation-and-storage-decarbonisation-pathway-for-singapore-energy-and-chemical-sectors-pdf.pdf}{Navigant}, \hrefc{https://netzeroamerica.princeton.edu/}{NZA}\\ \hline - 3 & Advanced dispatchable\footnote{{\scriptsize A stand-in for clean dispatchable technologies, - such as advanced geothermal (closed-loop) systems. See e.g., \hrefc{https://www.eavor.com/}{Eavor} - developing a promising solution for clean baseload \& dispatchable power with a potential - for a commercial scale up in Europe.}} - & 10000 €/kW & 0 & 0 & 1.00 & 30.0 & own estimates \\ + 3 & Advanced dispatchable + & 10000 €/kW & 0 & 0 & 1.00 & 30.0 & own assumption \\ \end{tabular} } @@ -1006,11 +1015,8 @@ \section{Data sources and key assumptions} \hrefc{https://file.go.gov.sg/carbon-capture-utilisation-and-storage-decarbonisation-pathway-for-singapore-energy-and-chemical-sectors-pdf.pdf}{Navigant}, \hrefc{https://netzeroamerica.princeton.edu/}{NZA}\\ \hline - 3& Advanced dispatchable\footnote{{\scriptsize A stand-in for clean dispatchable technologies, - such as advanced geothermal (closed-loop) systems. See e.g., \hrefc{https://www.eavor.com/}{Eavor} - developing a promising solution for clean baseload \& dispatchable power with a potential - for a commercial scale up in Europe.}} - & 10000 €/kW & 0 & 0 & 1 & 30 & own estimates \\ + 3& Advanced dispatchable + & 10000 €/kW & 0 & 0 & 1 & 30 & own assumption \\ \end{tabular} } @@ -1031,7 +1037,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} For convenience, we start with a \alert{base scenario} with the following setup: - \quad{\bf Zone:} IE| DE | DK1 | NL \\ + \quad{\bf Zone:} IE | DE | DK1 | NL \\ \quad{\bf Technology palette:} 1 | 2 | 3 \\ \quad{\bf Year:} 2025 \\ \quad{\bf Participation rate:} 10\% of C\&I demand in a modelled zone \\ @@ -1053,7 +1059,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} %---------------------------------- -\begin{frame}{Base scenario -- Ireland} +\begin{frame}{Base scenario: Ireland -- Palette 1} {\footnotesize \vspace{0.3cm} @@ -1067,15 +1073,15 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} \begin{column}{6cm} \vspace{0.1cm} -A plot on the left shows a {\bf fraction of hourly demand met with carbon-free -electricity} depending on a procurement policy that C\&I consumers follow. +A plot on the left shows the {\bf fraction of hourly demand met with carbon-free +electricity} depending on the procurement policy that C\&I consumers follow. \vspace{0.3cm} In the reference case, where C\&I consumers do not procure any resources, relying purely on grid purchases, \alert{only 61\%} of demand is met with CFE. \vspace{0.3cm} -100\% RES -- the best case of the annual renewable matching policy -- +100\% RES -- the best case for the annual renewable matching policy -- results in 85\% fraction. Thus, \alert{CFE targets beyond 85\%} yield higher share of hourly demand met with CFE than 100\% RES procurement policy. @@ -1092,7 +1098,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} -\begin{frame}{Base scenario -- Ireland} +\begin{frame}{Base scenario: Ireland -- Palette 1} {\footnotesize \vspace{0.3cm} @@ -1121,7 +1127,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} \vspace{0.3cm} When actively matching the carbon-free electricity and the load with 24/7 procurement, C\&I participants can achieve \alert{lower emission -rate than with the 100\% RES policy} with CFE targets beyond 85\%. +rates than with the 100\% RES policy} with CFE targets beyond 85\%. As CFE target is tightened further, average emissions \alert{drop to zero}. \end{column} @@ -1132,7 +1138,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} -\begin{frame}{Base scenario -- Ireland} +\begin{frame}{Base scenario: Ireland -- Palette 1} {\footnotesize \vspace{0.3cm} @@ -1147,7 +1153,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} \vspace{0.1cm} If we now turn to the {\bf portfolio capacity} procured by - C\&I consumers (depicted on the left), we see that at this level of participation + C\&I consumers, we see that at this level of participation (10\% of C\&I load in Ireland is at 220~MW), the 100\% RES policy can be me by procuring near to 1.5~GW of onshore wind and solar generators. @@ -1157,8 +1163,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} 100\% RES policy. \vspace{0.3cm} - Also, 24/7 procurement include \alert{battery storage} into a portfolio mix, - which becomes cost-optimal \alert{at higher CFE targets}. + Also, above 85\% 24/7 procurement sees \alert{battery storage} enter the portfolio mix. \vspace{0.3cm} Note that for 80\% CFE, 24/7 participating C\&I consumers procure less @@ -1172,7 +1177,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} -\begin{frame}{Base scenario -- Ireland} +\begin{frame}{Base scenario: Ireland -- Palette 1} {\footnotesize \vspace{0.3cm} @@ -1185,7 +1190,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} \end{column} \begin{column}{6cm} - \vspace{0.3cm} + \vspace{0.1cm} It is also interesting to look at the {\bf breakdown of costs associated with a procurement policy} that C\&I consumers choose. @@ -1195,7 +1200,9 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} subtracted from the net procurement cost. \vspace{0.3cm} - What stands out in the plot is the rapid increase of procurement costs + A CFE target of 90-95\% can be achieved at a small cost premium to 100\% + annual renewable matching with solar, wind and batteries. However, + what stands out in the plot is the rapid increase of procurement costs for high CFE targets. For example, 98\% CFE target has cost premium of only 55\% over 100\% annual renewable matching; while \alert{the last 2\% of hourly CFE matching more than doubles the @@ -1209,7 +1216,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} -\begin{frame}{Base scenario -- Ireland} +\begin{frame}{Base scenario: Ireland -- Palette 2} {\footnotesize @@ -1228,16 +1235,16 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} \begin{columns} \begin{column}{15cm} - If we look on the results for the technological {\bf Palette 2} -- + If we look at the results for the technological {\bf Palette 2} -- when C\&I consumers have an access to the long-duration energy storage (LDES) -- we see a different picture. The portfolio of renewable capacity C\&I consumers for the 100\% CFE target is not much larger than for 100\% RES (see the left panel). The LDES system helps to align the load with the generation of procured variable renewable resources. - On the right panel, we can see that a LDES system (here 2.5~€/kWh + In the right panel, we can see that a LDES system (here 2.5~€/kWh hydrogen storage in caverns) can \alert{significantly limit the procurement cost - increase} at high CFE targets. In this scenario, 100\% CFE costs less than 50\% above - 100\% RES policy. + increase} at high CFE targets. In this scenario, + 100\% CFE costs only 50\% more than a 100\% RES policy. \end{column} \end{columns} @@ -1248,7 +1255,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} -\begin{frame}{Base scenario -- Ireland} +\begin{frame}{Base scenario: Ireland -- Palette 3} {\footnotesize @@ -1273,7 +1280,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} advanced geothermal systems. In the case of Ireland, NG Allam Cycle generator is added to the procured portfolio. The clean dispatchable technology \alert{further limits - the hourly CFE cost premium} above the annual renewable mathing. + the hourly CFE cost premium} above annual renewable matching. Inclusion of clean firm generation also reduces storage requirements. \end{column} \end{columns} @@ -1285,7 +1292,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} %----- base scenario, system effects -\begin{frame}{Base scenario -- Ireland} +\begin{frame}{Base scenario: Ireland -- Palette 3} {\footnotesize \vspace{0.1cm} @@ -1303,12 +1310,12 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} In the next step, we explore how the 24/7 procurement affects the rest of the electricity system. The plot on the left shows {\bf CO$_2$~emissions in the local region} of 24/7 participating - consumers -- the Ireland. + consumers -- Ireland. \vspace{0.1cm} Without any procurement, the model estimates Irish power sector carbon emissions to be at the level of 3.5~MtCO$_2$ - (for a comparison, + (for comparison, \hrefc{https://www.seai.ie/data-and-insights/seai-statistics/key-statistics/co2/}{seai.ie} reports this value to be at 8.4~MtCO$_2$ in 2020, with a strong decreasing trend). @@ -1330,27 +1337,27 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} %---------------------------------------- %Base scenario - other countries -\begin{frame}{Base scenario -- other regions} +\begin{frame}{Base scenario: other regions} \centering - Results for scenarios when C\&I load committed to a voluntary CFE procurement - is located in other regions of the European electricity system + Results for other regions in Europe where C\&I load commits to voluntary \\ + CFE procurement show \alert{similar trends.} \\ \vspace{0.3cm} - However, each region has a set \alert{unique characteristics} + However, each region has a \alert{unique set of characteristics} that depend on local resources, renewable potentials, national energy and climate policies, degree of interconnections, etc. \vspace{0.3cm} - Despite regional differences, the trends of 24/7 CFE procurement, \\ + Despite regional differences, the dynamics of 24/7 CFE procurement, \\ observed in the example of Ireland, repeat in other regions. \end{frame} %---------------------------------------- -\begin{frame}{Base scenario -- Germany} +\begin{frame}{Base scenario: Germany -- Palette 1} {\footnotesize \vspace{0.1cm} @@ -1364,7 +1371,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} \begin{column}{6cm} \vspace{0.1cm} - In comparison to the case of Ireland, German grid is cleaner in 2025, + In comparison to the case of Ireland, the German grid is cleaner in 2025, in particular due to good interconnections with e.g., France and Denmark. Thus, without procuring any resources, C\&I consumers reach a 79\% share of demand met with CFE. @@ -1380,8 +1387,8 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} \vspace{0.3cm} Note that for lower CFE targets, constraint (\ref{eqn:CFE}) is not binding, what makes the same cost-optimal shares of - procured portfolio and grid imports to repeat - until CFE target becomes tight enough. + procured portfolio and grid imports repeat + until the CFE target becomes tight enough. \end{column} \end{columns} @@ -1391,7 +1398,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} - \begin{frame}{Base scenario -- Germany} + \begin{frame}{Base scenario: Germany -- Palette 1} {\footnotesize \vspace{0.3cm} @@ -1412,7 +1419,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} in the reference case. \vspace{0.3cm} - As in Ireland, \alert{two key observations} take place: \\ + As in Ireland, \alert{two key observations} can be made: \\ \vspace{0.1cm} (i) the voluntary commitment to 100\% annual matching @@ -1420,8 +1427,8 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} in this case, and \\ \vspace{0.1cm} (ii) with 24/7 CFE procurement, C\&I participants achieve much lower emissions - rate than 100\% annual matching with higher CFE targets. Emissions rates - fall to zero at 100 \% CFE score. + rates than 100\% annual matching with higher CFE targets. Emissions rates + fall to zero at 100\% CFE score. \end{column} \end{columns} @@ -1431,7 +1438,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} -\begin{frame}{Base scenario -- Germany} +\begin{frame}{Base scenario: Germany -- Palette 3} {\footnotesize @@ -1460,8 +1467,8 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} compared to 100\% RES. The reason for this is two-fold. To achieve lower CFE targets, C\&I consumers can complement portfolio with larger volume of imports from the fairly clean grid. - To achieve higher CFE targets, \alert{advanced firm generator} - is added to the C\&I portfolio that greatly reduces a need + To achieve higher CFE targets, an \alert{advanced dispatchable generator} + is added to the C\&I portfolio that greatly reduces the need for renewable energy to match load on an hourly basis. \end{column} \end{columns} @@ -1472,7 +1479,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} -\begin{frame}{Base scenario -- Germany} +\begin{frame}{Base scenario: Germany -- Palette 3} {\footnotesize \vspace{0.1cm} @@ -1500,7 +1507,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} follows voluntary procurement. With this participation, the 100\% RES can reduce system-level CO$_2$ emissions by \alert{6~MtCO$_2$} per year. - With the 24/7 hourly matching achieves, C\&I consumers + With the 24/7 hourly matching, C\&I consumers achieve greater impact on emissions, up to \alert{8~MtCO$_2$} per year with CFE 100\% target. @@ -1533,9 +1540,8 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} {\small From the modelling perspective, {\bf many system parameters change} with a step to 2030. In particular, the technology costs decline - due to, e.g., economics of scale and incremental innovation, national - energy- and climate policies become more tight, some legacy power plants age - and leave the market. An overarching feature of the energy transition is + due to economics of scale and incremental innovation, national + energy- and climate policies become more tight, some legacy power plants leave the market. An overarching feature of the energy transition is a \alert{cleaner state of the electricity grids}. }}} @@ -1545,7 +1551,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} %---------------------------------------- %2030 -\begin{frame}{2030 scenario -- Ireland} +\begin{frame}{2030 scenario: Ireland -- Palette 3} {\footnotesize @@ -1558,10 +1564,10 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} \begin{column}{6cm} \vspace{0.1cm} -The plot on the left shows a {\bf fraction of hourly demand met with CFE} +The plot on the left shows {\bf the fraction of hourly demand met with CFE} for different procurement policies for C\&I load in Ireland -- now for 2030. The first observation is that in the reference case, -74\% of demand met with CFE, which is 13\% more than in 2025. +74\% of demand is met with CFE, which is 13\% more than in 2025. Furthermore, there are \alert{two findings} on the hourly 24/7 matching: \\ @@ -1574,8 +1580,8 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} \vspace{0.1cm} {\bf Second}, grid imports can still play a role in reaching 100\% CFE, as LDES and advanced dispatchable technologies offer flexibility -in matching renewable generation with C\&I load on hourly basis while -benefiting grid imports during the hours when regional network is clean. +in matching renewable generation with C\&I load on hourly basis, while +grid imports are possible during the hours when regional grid is clean. \end{column} \end{columns} @@ -1585,7 +1591,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} -\begin{frame}{2030 scenario -- Ireland} +\begin{frame}{2030 scenario: Ireland -- Palette 3} {\footnotesize @@ -1608,11 +1614,11 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} and the {\bf C\&I cost breakdown} for Ireland-2030 scenario with the technology {\bf Palette 3}. The 24/7 procurement has a very \alert{diverse portfolio of technologies depending on the CFE target} -- from battery storage - (combinbed with grid imports only) in 80\% CFE -- + (combined with grid imports only) in 80\% CFE -- to a mix of NG Allam Cycle, solar, onshore wind, battery storage - and LDES for the tighter CFE targets. NB: despite much cleaner grid in 2030, - 220~MW of C\&I load requires to contract a similar 1.5~GW mix of wind - and solar for the 100\% RES policy as in the 2025. + and LDES for the tighter CFE targets. NB: despite a much cleaner grid in 2030, + a similar 1.5~GW mix of wind and solar is contracted to meet the 220~MW + of C\&I load for the 100\% RES policy as in 2025. \end{column} \end{columns} @@ -1623,7 +1629,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} -\begin{frame}{2030 scenario -- Ireland} +\begin{frame}{2030 scenario: Ireland -- Palette 3} {\footnotesize \vspace{0.3cm} @@ -1644,7 +1650,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} 89~kg/MWh in 2030. \vspace{0.3cm} -Nevetheless, the dynamics of 24/7 CFE vs 100\% RES +Nevertheless, the dynamics of 24/7 CFE vs 100\% RES procurement remains the same also in 2030: an hourly 24/7 matching allows for net-zero emissions associated with the C\&I buyers' consumption, with a lower emission rate already above ca. 85\% CFE (in this scenario). @@ -1662,7 +1668,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} %- germany 2030 p3 fraction+emisrate -\begin{frame}{2030 scenario -- Germany} +\begin{frame}{2030 scenario: Germany -- Palette 3} {\footnotesize @@ -1682,7 +1688,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} \begin{columns} \begin{column}{15cm} Similar effects can be observed if C\&I participants are located in other countries. - The figure above shows a {\bf fraction of hourly demand met with CFE} (left panel) + The figure above shows the {\bf fraction of hourly demand met with CFE} (left panel) and the {\bf average emission rate} of 24/7 participating consumers (right panel) for the case of Germany \& technology {\bf Palette 3}. As in the Ireland 2030, lower CFE targets can now be met with a very large share of grid imports, @@ -1698,7 +1704,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} %- germany 2030 p3 capacity+costs -> premium -\begin{frame}{2030 scenario -- Germany} +\begin{frame}{2030 scenario: Germany -- Palette 3} {\footnotesize @@ -1721,7 +1727,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} If we now look at the {\bf portfolio capacity} and the {\bf C\&I cost breakdown} for Germany-2030-{\bf Palette 3} scenario, the single most striking observation is that a cost-optimal portfolio mix procured by the C\&I participants for CFE 100\% target comes - at \alert{almost no cost premium} to 100\% annual renewable mathing (the difference is ca. 2.3~\euro/MWh). + at \alert{almost no cost premium} to 100\% annual renewable matching (the difference is ca. 2.3~\euro/MWh). At the same time, C\&I participants achieve a \alert{zero emission rate} associated to their electricity consumption (see above). @@ -1734,7 +1740,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} %- ireland and germany total system capacity difference. -\begin{frame}{2030 scenario -- Ireland \& Germany} +\begin{frame}{2030 scenario: Ireland \& Germany -- Palette 3} {\footnotesize @@ -1754,13 +1760,13 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} \begin{columns} \begin{column}{15cm} - Another question worth attention is how does 24/7 procurement affects the capacity mix - in the rest of the system? The plots present the {\bf difference + Another important question is how 24/7 procurement affects the capacity mix in the rest of the system. + The plots present the {\bf difference in the generation capacity expansion of the whole European electricity system (including C\&I resources) - with and without 24/7 procurement} for the cases when C\&I load is located in Ireland (left panel) and + with and without 24/7 procurement} for the cases where C\&I load is located in Ireland (left panel) and in Germany (right panel) in 2030. - A remarkable trend is that 24/7 portfolio benefits the system by \alert{reducing flexibility needs} -- system requires - less battery storage and peaker capacity in a form of Gas Open Cycle~(OC). + A 24/7 portfolio benefits the system by \alert{reducing flexibility needs} -- the system requires + less battery storage and peaker capacity in the form of Gas Open Cycle~(OC) technology. The substitution of Gas~OC capacity with C\&I resources \alert{facilitates decarbonization} of the entire system. @@ -1775,7 +1781,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} %- -----------------DK2030 -\begin{frame}{2030 scenario -- Denmark (an extremely clean grid case)} +\begin{frame}{2030 scenario: Denmark (an extremely clean grid case)} {\footnotesize @@ -1788,12 +1794,13 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} \begin{column}{6cm} \vspace{0.5cm} - The case of Denmark in 2030 is pretty special. This is driven by the Danish + The case of Denmark in 2030 is special. \\ + This is driven by the Danish \hrefc{https://energy.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2020-01/dk_final_necp_main_en_0.pdf}{national energy and climate policy} aimed at \alert{110\% of renewable electricity} in the national consumption mix by 2030. \vspace{0.3cm} - This can be illustrated well with a {\bf fraction of hourly demand met with CFE}, where + This can be illustrated well with the {\bf fraction of hourly demand met with CFE}, where the reference value reaches as much as \alert{93\%}, and 100\% annual renewable matching -- \alert{96.5\%}. Thus, only the \alert{CFE targets above 97\%} can deliver a higher fraction of demand met with CFE than 100\% RES. @@ -1806,7 +1813,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} - \begin{frame}{2030 scenario -- Denmark (an extremely clean grid case)} + \begin{frame}{2030 scenario: Denmark -- Palette 3} {\footnotesize @@ -1828,10 +1835,10 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} The {\bf portfolio capacity} analysis for the DK-2030 scenario, reveals two findings driven by the excellent potentials for onshore wind in Denmark. {\bf First}, the cost-optimal 24/7 procurement for lower CFE targets - still contains resources contracted by C\&I consumers, despite grid is extremely clean. + still contains resources contracted by C\&I consumers, despite the fact that the grid is extremely clean. Thus, the additional capacity procured by C\&I participants can benefit (from the cost-minimization perspective) the rest of the system. - {\bf Second}, NG Allam Cycle generator is added to a portfolio \alert{only for the CFE 100\% target}. + {\bf Second}, NG Allam Cycle generators are added to the portfolio \alert{only for the CFE 100\% target}. The targets $\leq$100\% are cost-optimally met by a combination of existing technologies, LDES and grid imports. \end{column} @@ -1859,7 +1866,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} \noindent\fbox{% \parbox{\textwidth}{% {\small - (i) How do findings adjust with higher participation rates of C\&I consumers? + (i) How do the findings change with higher participation rates of C\&I consumers? For this analysis, we assume that {\bf 25\%} of C\&I consumers in a selected region joins voluntary clean energy procurement. \\ \alert{Finding:} Higher participation rates result in a similar mix of procured resources @@ -1875,7 +1882,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} {\bf two synthetic hourly demand profiles} representing 'datacenter' and 'industry consumer' and benchmark the two with the reference baseload (flat) profile. \\ \alert{Finding:} The shape of consumption profiles of C\&I participants affect the cost-optimal technology - mix in a procured portfolio; although impacts on the procurement cost, emissionality of the portfolio, + mix in a procured portfolio; however, the impacts on the procurement cost, emissionality of the portfolio, as well as the system impacts of 24/7 procurement are negligible. } }} @@ -1884,7 +1891,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} -\begin{frame}{The impact of higher participation rates (selected IE--P1--2025)} +\begin{frame}{The impact of higher participation rates (selected IE -- P1 -- 2025)} {\footnotesize @@ -1938,7 +1945,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} -\begin{frame}{The impact of higher participation rates (selected DE--P2--2030)} +\begin{frame}{The impact of higher participation rates (selected DE -- P2 -- 2030)} {\footnotesize @@ -1992,7 +1999,7 @@ \section{Modelling results and analysis} -\begin{frame}{The impact of C\&I consumption profiles (selected IE--P1--2025)} +\begin{frame}{The impact of C\&I consumption profiles (selected IE -- P1 -- 2025)} {\footnotesize @@ -2095,42 +2102,39 @@ \section{Conclusions} {\small \begin{frame}{Conclusions} - \noindent\fbox{% - \parbox{\textwidth}{% - {\bf Conclusion 1:} Reaching carbon-free energy (CFE) for 80-90\% of the time - has \alert{comparable cost and system impact} to annually matching 100\% renewable energy. - A CFE target of 80-90\% can be met through a combination of wind, solar and batteries. - }} + \noindent\fbox{% + \parbox{\textwidth}{% + {\bf Conclusion 1:} 24/7~carbon-free energy (CFE) procurement leads to + \alert{lower emissions for both the buyer and the system}, + as well as reducing the needs for flexibility in the rest of the system. + }} - \noindent\fbox{% - \parbox{\textwidth}{% - {\bf Conclusion 2:} - Reaching 100\% CFE is possible but costly with existing renewable - and storage technologies, with \alert{costs increasing rapidly above 95\%}. - }} + \noindent\fbox{% + \parbox{\textwidth}{% + {\bf Conclusion 2:} Reaching CFE for 90-95\% of the time can be done with only a \alert{small cost premium} + compared to annually matching 100\% renewable energy. + 90-95\% CFE can be met by supplementing wind and solar with battery storage. + }} - \noindent\fbox{% - \parbox{\textwidth}{% - {\bf Conclusion 3:} 100\% 24/7~CFE procurement could have a \alert{much smaller cost premium} - if long duration energy storage or - clean dispatchable technologies like advanced geothermal are available. - }} - - \noindent\fbox{% - \parbox{\textwidth}{% - {\bf Conclusion 4:} 24/7~CFE procurement leads to \alert{lower emissions - for both the buyer and the system}, - as well as reducing the needs for flexibility in the rest of the system. - }} + \noindent\fbox{% + \parbox{\textwidth}{% + {\bf Conclusion 3:} Reaching 100\% CFE target is possible but costly with existing renewable + and storage technologies, with \alert{costs increasing rapidly above 95\%}. + }} - \noindent\fbox{% - \parbox{\textwidth}{% - {\bf Conclusion 5:} 24/7~CFE procurement targets would create an early market for advanced technologies, - stimulating innovation and learning from which the \alert{whole electricity system would profit}. + \noindent\fbox{% + \parbox{\textwidth}{% + {\bf Conclusion 4:} 100\% CFE target could have a \alert{much smaller cost premium} if long duration storage or + clean dispatchable technologies like advanced geothermal are available. }} -\end{frame} + \noindent\fbox{% + \parbox{\textwidth}{% + {\bf Conclusion 5:} 24/7~CFE procurement would create an early market for the advanced technologies, + stimulating innovation and learning from which the \alert{whole electricity system would benefit}. + }} +\end{frame} %----------------------------------------