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afd-raw.txt
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000
FXUS65 KTWC 300933
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
234 AM MST Sat Jan 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS...Areas of dense fog are expected this morning mainly
from Tucson north and westward. Otherwise, dry and cool weather
today. Temperatures will warm starting Sunday and continuing into
early next week before the next weather system impacts the region
around Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The mid/upper level trough and frontal band that
resulted in shower activity for most of southeast Arizona last night
has mostly pushed east of the area. Any residual light showers will
wrap up in the next hour or so across Cochise County with clouds
gradually diminishing there this morning. For the remainder of the
area, skies have generally cleared which given the wet ground and
elevated dewpoints is allowing for the development of some dense fog
mainly from Tucson north and westward. In collaboration with PSR, we
decided to hoist a Dense Fog Advisory for Eastern and Central Pima
County along with South-Central Pinal County through 9 AM. Certainly
not all areas will see fog but we're seeing increasing fog signature
showing up on satellite over Pinal County and portions of the T.O.
Nation which is likely to continue through the early morning hours.
Once any fog lifts later this morning, it's shaping up to be a sunny
but cool late January day with highs about 5 to 8 degrees below
normal.
As ridging firmly builds in for Sunday and Monday, heights and
thickness values rise accordingly to result in much warmer
temperatures. The ridge will be 'dirty' with considerable mid and
high level cloudiness starting Monday and continuing Tuesday as the
flow becomes more southwesterly ahead of the next trough.
Temperatures should peak Tuesday about 10 degrees above normal.
The next storm system is expected in the Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday timeframe. Still considerable uncertainty on the details of
this system regarding the timing and exact track. We could see a pre-
cursor subtropical disturbance resulting in some showers as
early as Wednesday afternoon out ahead of the main portion of the
storm Wednesday night into Thursday. Bottom line is expect another
chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers with a return to
cooler temperatures. A few showers could persist into Friday mainly
from Tucson eastward, especially if the storm is a bit slower
ejecting eastward.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 31/12Z. Some FEW/SCT low/mid level clouds
remain this morning south and east of KTUS, however these are
rapidly dissipating. With the recent valley rain and clear skies,
VCFG/FG is possible for KTUS this morning. Any FG will burn off by
15Z or so. Expect SKC for all TAF locales during the late morning
and into the afternoon. SFC winds will be light and generally favor
the a NW direction. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry today through at least this coming
Tuesday, before another storm system approaches the region. This
system will have a chance to bring another round of valley rain and
mountain snow showers with breezy to windy conditions. Cooler
temperatures will also accompany this storm system.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for AZZ502-504-
505.
&&
$$
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