Next focusable element after arrow key

[drewstewartdesigns]

Given a user has paginated to the next/previous set of list items using an arrow key, would the expected next focused list item upon a tab/shift+tab not be the first or last visible list item in the current "page" of items?

The current carousel example will return the user to the previous page of items and set focus on the next/previous list item.

If the user has explicitly changed pages of content, could one assume that they expected to immediately be able to tab focus on those list items in that page?