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Here are the grammatically corrected predictions:

Future: Keep an eye on

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21944518

2020

  • CS core → AI
  • CS basic → all the other fields
  • Obesity, depression, mental health
  • Clean air, water
  • Remote working's impact on culture

2030

  • Fall of Amazon
  • Return of gamification
  • Rise of software, Software 2.0
  • Beginning: Decentralized hardware to support decentralized internet

2040

  • Rise of malls

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Prediction 2020

Field: Software

Around the start of the decade:

  • Nearly every old SaaS company would become a platform, offering a marketplace and hosting for custom-built solutions.
  • Rise of very narrowly focused software companies (superhuman for X trend - to me this means software with an extremely narrow set of features, with a focus on being fast).
  • Reduced time to market for software products, followed by a decline in the quality of software (performance, security, speed of building features).
  • Rise in the number of open-source full-fledged products.
    • Came True
  • Rise of NoCode, which would facilitate the rise of micro-SaaS.
    • Came True, every company is no-code

COVID Effects:

  • Bloodbath in service-based companies
  • FAANG, Salesforce, and bigger, older tech companies gain platform strength
  • Software needs to become a tool again, rather than a thing of magic. Everyone uses software, but the software is coming in between the user and the task.
  • Design is not how it looks, but how it works
  • Giants are going to copy the design but can't beat the product UX or how it works
  • Consolidation is happening all around; every new offering is getting copied by the giants
  • PMs in giants are going to suck the life out of the product → Therein lies the opportunity
  • Attention span is going to get further shortened; this means software + AI needs to provide the user with a decision based on all the data points required by the user.
  • Data integration from various sources
  • Data integration needs to be citizen-driven, no-code, usable, seamless
  • E.g., a trader needs to read the IPO doc; the trader can select the type of data required out of the doc, feed it to their algorithms, and a decision would be made
  • It's AI as a compute tool + Human as a decision-maker
  • Software tools need to be uniform in terms of UI and features so that anyone can simply adjust the software according to their own job requirements rather than relearning the software. Innovation within a software vertical is slowing down; all software has the same features, configuring a Cisco router is the same as configuring any run-of-the-mill router provider.
  • GenZ, the video generation, needs to have a social network that's all video + virtual
  • VR [boom] + Facebook [boom] + needs an open-source ecosystem - that's not Android or iPhone
  • The discussion forums have to be all video
  • The blogs have to be all video
  • What has happened with games is going to happen to jobs; GenZ using the software and relaying how they solved the problem
  • Everything becomes a Twitch stream
  • Seamless privacy enablement using AI should be there in the video
  • Company certification tests need a reboot; going to a test center and paying a lot of money is no longer worth it. What Duolingo has done to the English test needs to happen to company-wise certifications - Azure certified, etc.
  • New hardware + new compiler + energy efficient + affordable + fast = support AI + Quantum Computing + Quantum Network
  • Instant everything
  • Hospitals → doctor on demand + cheap sensors (Apple Watch) + remote clinic (expensive machines and tests only) + same doctor everywhere (personal doctor)

Around the middle of the decade:

  • Rise of paid Open Source developers.
  • Rise of IT dept. in organizations.
  • Data engineering would be a part of IT.
    • Came True
  • More organizations would turn to in-house development.
  • Rise of FAAS (Feature as a Service) on top of SaaS and Open Source, facilitated by a small set of teams serving the Enterprise market.
    • Came True -- GenAI Agents
  • Every IDE would offer ML-based code completion. This would be adopted quite quickly by companies in hopes that tech debt would be paid.
    • Came True

  • Experienced software engineers would consolidate behind the core-tech companies or churn out of the industry.

Around the end of the decade:

  • CS (subject) would just become AI/ML and would follow the path of core engineering degrees, where having a post-grad degree is no longer optional.
    • It would be offered as a combined UG+PG degree.
    • The curriculum would be more or less the same; only the name change would happen for the UG.
    • Universities would struggle to attract candidates in the CS stream as the popularity of lambda schools and other bootcamps soar.
      • Well, lambda school
  • CS (subject) would be merged with other degrees to offer combined degrees.
    • The curriculum would include the first two years of CS - programming, database, data structure, data engineering, software engineering, and some IT subjects around DevOps.
      • Might come true.
  • Rise of industry and function-specific NoCode apps/services.
    • Came True.
  • PostGres-Rust - release of Postgres, rewritten in Rust (in general - Nginx, Python, not all, but one of the major tech components)
  • Day 0 for the Software industry.
    • it bottoms out before rising again in the next decade.
      • Came True.
    • The Mythical Man-Month would be the bible for the new software industry.
  • Day 0 for the distributed internet and distributed apps.
  • A hardware company bigger than Intel at its peak.
    • Came True: nvidia
  • The first truly distributed organization, start of an experiment.

Random Predictions

  • Amazon would peak.

  • Nationalist sentiments are on the rise in India; this might force consumer-facing companies to take some drastic measures, such as Walmart and Amazon either merging or leaving India.

    • This came to be true, but because of Corona, the world is planning to move from globalization to localization.

  • Gold rates would be at an all-time high.

    • This came to be true, but not because I was thinking about Corona; rather, I was thinking about the boom in the semiconductor industry and how software would need new hardware.

  • Mental health issues would be on the rise.

  • Cloud kitchens/delivery-only restaurants would be the norm.

    • This came to be true, but not because I was thinking about Corona

  • Ownership would start moving towards digital (digital money, space in VR land, etc.).

  • Expect breakthroughs in quantum computing and the internet.

  • Hope for some progress in self-configurable robots.

  • The sharing economy would grow.

    • Might not come to be true because of Corona.

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