final_assignment.ipynb

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   "metadata": {},
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   "source": [
    "import os\n",
    "import datetime\n",
    "import random\n",
    "\n",
    "from bokeh.io import show\n",
    "from bokeh.plotting import figure\n",
    "from bokeh.io import output_notebook\n",
    "from bokeh.layouts import gridplot\n",
    "\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import math\n",
    "import scipy.optimize as optim\n",
    "import pandas as pd"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# Effectiveness of Mask Mandates\n",
    "In order to slow the spread of covid-19, many states in the United States passed mask mandates. A mandate is a law. The mandates required all people to wear masks in public.\n",
    "\n",
    "Did these mandates help slow the spread? Did they help? In order to answer this question, you will do two types of analysis:\n",
    "\n",
    "1. Compare the number of cases before the mandate, and after the mandate, and determine the if the difference is significant. \n",
    "2. Compare the rt before the mandate and after tha mandate.\n",
    "\n",
    "I have included example code for one state. Use this code to do the same analysis for the other states. \n",
    "\n",
    "Note that each state has 3 periods. There is the period before, the incubation period, and the period after. The incubation period refers to the time the infection lives in the body before it shows symtomps. On average, this period is 5 days. We will ignore this period. \n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def make_bar(labels, nums, title = None, y_range = None, plot_width = 350, plot_height = 350):\n",
    "    p = figure(title = title, plot_width = plot_width, plot_height = plot_height,\n",
    "              y_range = y_range)\n",
    "    p.vbar(x=labels, top=nums, width=0.9)\n",
    "    p.xgrid.grid_line_color = None\n",
    "    return p"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def resample(l):\n",
    "    final = []\n",
    "    for i in range(len(l)):\n",
    "        final.append(random.choice(l))\n",
    "    return final"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def exp_func(x, initial, ratio):\n",
    "    return initial * np.power(ratio, x - 1)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def repeat_resample(sample_a, sample_b, num_iter = 1000):\n",
    "    difference_in_means = []#keep track of the difference in heights for each experiment\n",
    "    for i in range(num_iter):\n",
    "        resample_a = resample(sample_a)\n",
    "        resample_b = resample(sample_b)\n",
    "        difference = np.mean(resample_a) - np.mean(resample_b)\n",
    "        difference_in_means.append(difference)\n",
    "    return difference_in_means\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
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       "\n",
       "    <div class=\"bk-root\">\n",
       "        <a href=\"https://bokeh.org\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"bk-logo bk-logo-small bk-logo-notebook\"></a>\n",
       "        <span id=\"1001\">Loading BokehJS ...</span>\n",
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       "  var CLASS_NAME = 'output_bokeh rendered_html';\n",
       "\n",
       "  /**\n",
       "   * Render data to the DOM node\n",
       "   */\n",
       "  function render(props, node) {\n",
       "    var script = document.createElement(\"script\");\n",
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       "      // Destroy server and session\n",
       "      var cmd = \"import bokeh.io.notebook as ion; ion.destroy_server('\" + server_id + \"')\";\n",
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       "\n",
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       "        toinsert[toinsert.length - 1].firstChild.setAttribute(script_attrs[i].name, script_attrs[i].value);\n",
       "        toinsert[toinsert.length - 1].firstChild.textContent = bk_div.children[0].textContent\n",
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       "\n",
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       "      // create a DOM node to render to\n",
       "      var toinsert = this.create_output_subarea(\n",
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       "        EXEC_MIME_TYPE\n",
       "      );\n",
       "      this.keyboard_manager.register_events(toinsert);\n",
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       "      render(props, toinsert[toinsert.length - 1]);\n",
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       "    events.on('delete.Cell', handleClearOutput);\n",
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       "    events.on('output_added.OutputArea', handleAddOutput);\n",
       "\n",
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       "\n",
       "  // register the mime type if in Jupyter Notebook environment and previously unregistered\n",
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       "\n",
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       "\n",
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       "    root._bokeh_timeout = Date.now() + 5000;\n",
       "    root._bokeh_failed_load = false;\n",
       "  }\n",
       "\n",
       "  var NB_LOAD_WARNING = {'data': {'text/html':\n",
       "     \"<div style='background-color: #fdd'>\\n\"+\n",
       "     \"<p>\\n\"+\n",
       "     \"BokehJS does not appear to have successfully loaded. If loading BokehJS from CDN, this \\n\"+\n",
       "     \"may be due to a slow or bad network connection. Possible fixes:\\n\"+\n",
       "     \"</p>\\n\"+\n",
       "     \"<ul>\\n\"+\n",
       "     \"<li>re-rerun `output_notebook()` to attempt to load from CDN again, or</li>\\n\"+\n",
       "     \"<li>use INLINE resources instead, as so:</li>\\n\"+\n",
       "     \"</ul>\\n\"+\n",
       "     \"<code>\\n\"+\n",
       "     \"from bokeh.resources import INLINE\\n\"+\n",
       "     \"output_notebook(resources=INLINE)\\n\"+\n",
       "     \"</code>\\n\"+\n",
       "     \"</div>\"}};\n",
       "\n",
       "  function display_loaded() {\n",
       "    var el = document.getElementById(\"1001\");\n",
       "    if (el != null) {\n",
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       "      setTimeout(display_loaded, 100)\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "\n",
       "\n",
       "  function run_callbacks() {\n",
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       "      root._bokeh_onload_callbacks.forEach(function(callback) {\n",
       "        if (callback != null)\n",
       "          callback();\n",
       "      });\n",
       "    } finally {\n",
       "      delete root._bokeh_onload_callbacks\n",
       "    }\n",
       "    console.debug(\"Bokeh: all callbacks have finished\");\n",
       "  }\n",
       "\n",
       "  function load_libs(css_urls, js_urls, callback) {\n",
       "    if (css_urls == null) css_urls = [];\n",
       "    if (js_urls == null) js_urls = [];\n",
       "\n",
       "    root._bokeh_onload_callbacks.push(callback);\n",
       "    if (root._bokeh_is_loading > 0) {\n",
       "      console.debug(\"Bokeh: BokehJS is being loaded, scheduling callback at\", now());\n",
       "      return null;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "    if (js_urls == null || js_urls.length === 0) {\n",
       "      run_callbacks();\n",
       "      return null;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "    console.debug(\"Bokeh: BokehJS not loaded, scheduling load and callback at\", now());\n",
       "    root._bokeh_is_loading = css_urls.length + js_urls.length;\n",
       "\n",
       "    function on_load() {\n",
       "      root._bokeh_is_loading--;\n",
       "      if (root._bokeh_is_loading === 0) {\n",
       "        console.debug(\"Bokeh: all BokehJS libraries/stylesheets loaded\");\n",
       "        run_callbacks()\n",
       "      }\n",
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       "    function on_error() {\n",
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       "\n",
       "    for (var i = 0; i < css_urls.length; i++) {\n",
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       "      const element = document.createElement(\"link\");\n",
       "      element.onload = on_load;\n",
       "      element.onerror = on_error;\n",
       "      element.rel = \"stylesheet\";\n",
       "      element.type = \"text/css\";\n",
       "      element.href = url;\n",
       "      console.debug(\"Bokeh: injecting link tag for BokehJS stylesheet: \", url);\n",
       "      document.body.appendChild(element);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    const hashes = {\"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-2.1.1.min.js\": \"kLr4fYcqcSpbuI95brIH3vnnYCquzzSxHPU6XGQCIkQRGJwhg0StNbj1eegrHs12\", \"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-widgets-2.1.1.min.js\": \"xIGPmVtaOm+z0BqfSOMn4lOR6ciex448GIKG4eE61LsAvmGj48XcMQZtKcE/UXZe\", \"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-tables-2.1.1.min.js\": \"Dc9u1wF/0zApGIWoBbH77iWEHtdmkuYWG839Uzmv8y8yBLXebjO9ZnERsde5Ln/P\", \"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-gl-2.1.1.min.js\": \"cT9JaBz7GiRXdENrJLZNSC6eMNF3nh3fa5fTF51Svp+ukxPdwcU5kGXGPBgDCa2j\"};\n",
       "\n",
       "    for (var i = 0; i < js_urls.length; i++) {\n",
       "      var url = js_urls[i];\n",
       "      var element = document.createElement('script');\n",
       "      element.onload = on_load;\n",
       "      element.onerror = on_error;\n",
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       "      if (url in hashes) {\n",
       "        element.crossOrigin = \"anonymous\";\n",
       "        element.integrity = \"sha384-\" + hashes[url];\n",
       "      }\n",
       "      console.debug(\"Bokeh: injecting script tag for BokehJS library: \", url);\n",
       "      document.head.appendChild(element);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  };\n",
       "\n",
       "  function inject_raw_css(css) {\n",
       "    const element = document.createElement(\"style\");\n",
       "    element.appendChild(document.createTextNode(css));\n",
       "    document.body.appendChild(element);\n",
       "  }\n",
       "\n",
       "  \n",
       "  var js_urls = [\"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-2.1.1.min.js\", \"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-widgets-2.1.1.min.js\", \"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-tables-2.1.1.min.js\", \"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-gl-2.1.1.min.js\"];\n",
       "  var css_urls = [];\n",
       "  \n",
       "\n",
       "  var inline_js = [\n",
       "    function(Bokeh) {\n",
       "      Bokeh.set_log_level(\"info\");\n",
       "    },\n",
       "    function(Bokeh) {\n",
       "    \n",
       "    \n",
       "    }\n",
       "  ];\n",
       "\n",
       "  function run_inline_js() {\n",
       "    \n",
       "    if (root.Bokeh !== undefined || force === true) {\n",
       "      \n",
       "    for (var i = 0; i < inline_js.length; i++) {\n",
       "      inline_js[i].call(root, root.Bokeh);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "    if (force === true) {\n",
       "        display_loaded();\n",
       "      }} else if (Date.now() < root._bokeh_timeout) {\n",
       "      setTimeout(run_inline_js, 100);\n",
       "    } else if (!root._bokeh_failed_load) {\n",
       "      console.log(\"Bokeh: BokehJS failed to load within specified timeout.\");\n",
       "      root._bokeh_failed_load = true;\n",
       "    } else if (force !== true) {\n",
       "      var cell = $(document.getElementById(\"1001\")).parents('.cell').data().cell;\n",
       "      cell.output_area.append_execute_result(NB_LOAD_WARNING)\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "  }\n",
       "\n",
       "  if (root._bokeh_is_loading === 0) {\n",
       "    console.debug(\"Bokeh: BokehJS loaded, going straight to plotting\");\n",
       "    run_inline_js();\n",
       "  } else {\n",
       "    load_libs(css_urls, js_urls, function() {\n",
       "      console.debug(\"Bokeh: BokehJS plotting callback run at\", now());\n",
       "      run_inline_js();\n",
       "    });\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}(window));"
      ],
      "application/vnd.bokehjs_load.v0+json": "\n(function(root) {\n  function now() {\n    return new Date();\n  }\n\n  var force = true;\n\n  if (typeof root._bokeh_onload_callbacks === \"undefined\" || force === true) {\n    root._bokeh_onload_callbacks = [];\n    root._bokeh_is_loading = undefined;\n  }\n\n  \n\n  \n  if (typeof (root._bokeh_timeout) === \"undefined\" || force === true) {\n    root._bokeh_timeout = Date.now() + 5000;\n    root._bokeh_failed_load = false;\n  }\n\n  var NB_LOAD_WARNING = {'data': {'text/html':\n     \"<div style='background-color: #fdd'>\\n\"+\n     \"<p>\\n\"+\n     \"BokehJS does not appear to have successfully loaded. If loading BokehJS from CDN, this \\n\"+\n     \"may be due to a slow or bad network connection. Possible fixes:\\n\"+\n     \"</p>\\n\"+\n     \"<ul>\\n\"+\n     \"<li>re-rerun `output_notebook()` to attempt to load from CDN again, or</li>\\n\"+\n     \"<li>use INLINE resources instead, as so:</li>\\n\"+\n     \"</ul>\\n\"+\n     \"<code>\\n\"+\n     \"from bokeh.resources import INLINE\\n\"+\n     \"output_notebook(resources=INLINE)\\n\"+\n     \"</code>\\n\"+\n     \"</div>\"}};\n\n  function display_loaded() {\n    var el = document.getElementById(\"1001\");\n    if (el != null) {\n      el.textContent = \"BokehJS is loading...\";\n    }\n    if (root.Bokeh !== undefined) {\n      if (el != null) {\n        el.textContent = \"BokehJS \" + root.Bokeh.version + \" successfully loaded.\";\n      }\n    } else if (Date.now() < root._bokeh_timeout) {\n      setTimeout(display_loaded, 100)\n    }\n  }\n\n\n  function run_callbacks() {\n    try {\n      root._bokeh_onload_callbacks.forEach(function(callback) {\n        if (callback != null)\n          callback();\n      });\n    } finally {\n      delete root._bokeh_onload_callbacks\n    }\n    console.debug(\"Bokeh: all callbacks have finished\");\n  }\n\n  function load_libs(css_urls, js_urls, callback) {\n    if (css_urls == null) css_urls = [];\n    if (js_urls == null) js_urls = [];\n\n    root._bokeh_onload_callbacks.push(callback);\n    if (root._bokeh_is_loading > 0) {\n      console.debug(\"Bokeh: BokehJS is being loaded, scheduling callback at\", now());\n      return null;\n    }\n    if (js_urls == null || js_urls.length === 0) {\n      run_callbacks();\n      return null;\n    }\n    console.debug(\"Bokeh: BokehJS not loaded, scheduling load and callback at\", now());\n    root._bokeh_is_loading = css_urls.length + js_urls.length;\n\n    function on_load() {\n      root._bokeh_is_loading--;\n      if (root._bokeh_is_loading === 0) {\n        console.debug(\"Bokeh: all BokehJS libraries/stylesheets loaded\");\n        run_callbacks()\n      }\n    }\n\n    function on_error() {\n      console.error(\"failed to load \" + url);\n    }\n\n    for (var i = 0; i < css_urls.length; i++) {\n      var url = css_urls[i];\n      const element = document.createElement(\"link\");\n      element.onload = on_load;\n      element.onerror = on_error;\n      element.rel = \"stylesheet\";\n      element.type = \"text/css\";\n      element.href = url;\n      console.debug(\"Bokeh: injecting link tag for BokehJS stylesheet: \", url);\n      document.body.appendChild(element);\n    }\n\n    const hashes = {\"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-2.1.1.min.js\": \"kLr4fYcqcSpbuI95brIH3vnnYCquzzSxHPU6XGQCIkQRGJwhg0StNbj1eegrHs12\", \"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-widgets-2.1.1.min.js\": \"xIGPmVtaOm+z0BqfSOMn4lOR6ciex448GIKG4eE61LsAvmGj48XcMQZtKcE/UXZe\", \"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-tables-2.1.1.min.js\": \"Dc9u1wF/0zApGIWoBbH77iWEHtdmkuYWG839Uzmv8y8yBLXebjO9ZnERsde5Ln/P\", \"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-gl-2.1.1.min.js\": \"cT9JaBz7GiRXdENrJLZNSC6eMNF3nh3fa5fTF51Svp+ukxPdwcU5kGXGPBgDCa2j\"};\n\n    for (var i = 0; i < js_urls.length; i++) {\n      var url = js_urls[i];\n      var element = document.createElement('script');\n      element.onload = on_load;\n      element.onerror = on_error;\n      element.async = false;\n      element.src = url;\n      if (url in hashes) {\n        element.crossOrigin = \"anonymous\";\n        element.integrity = \"sha384-\" + hashes[url];\n      }\n      console.debug(\"Bokeh: injecting script tag for BokehJS library: \", url);\n      document.head.appendChild(element);\n    }\n  };\n\n  function inject_raw_css(css) {\n    const element = document.createElement(\"style\");\n    element.appendChild(document.createTextNode(css));\n    document.body.appendChild(element);\n  }\n\n  \n  var js_urls = [\"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-2.1.1.min.js\", \"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-widgets-2.1.1.min.js\", \"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-tables-2.1.1.min.js\", \"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-gl-2.1.1.min.js\"];\n  var css_urls = [];\n  \n\n  var inline_js = [\n    function(Bokeh) {\n      Bokeh.set_log_level(\"info\");\n    },\n    function(Bokeh) {\n    \n    \n    }\n  ];\n\n  function run_inline_js() {\n    \n    if (root.Bokeh !== undefined || force === true) {\n      \n    for (var i = 0; i < inline_js.length; i++) {\n      inline_js[i].call(root, root.Bokeh);\n    }\n    if (force === true) {\n        display_loaded();\n      }} else if (Date.now() < root._bokeh_timeout) {\n      setTimeout(run_inline_js, 100);\n    } else if (!root._bokeh_failed_load) {\n      console.log(\"Bokeh: BokehJS failed to load within specified timeout.\");\n      root._bokeh_failed_load = true;\n    } else if (force !== true) {\n      var cell = $(document.getElementById(\"1001\")).parents('.cell').data().cell;\n      cell.output_area.append_execute_result(NB_LOAD_WARNING)\n    }\n\n  }\n\n  if (root._bokeh_is_loading === 0) {\n    console.debug(\"Bokeh: BokehJS loaded, going straight to plotting\");\n    run_inline_js();\n  } else {\n    load_libs(css_urls, js_urls, function() {\n      console.debug(\"Bokeh: BokehJS plotting callback run at\", now());\n      run_inline_js();\n    });\n  }\n}(window));"
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "output_notebook()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "\"\"\"Read in the data\"\"\"\n",
    "DF = pd.read_csv(os.path.join('data', 'mask.csv'))\n",
    "DF['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(DF['Date'])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "ca_pre = DF[\n",
    "    (DF['period'] == 'pre_mask') #first filter for period (after)\n",
    "    & (DF['state'] == 'California') #second filter for state (before)\n",
    " ]\n",
    "ca_post =DF[\n",
    "    (DF['period'] == 'post_mask') # first filter for period (after)\n",
    "    & (DF['state'] == 'California')] # second filter for perid (before)\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "\n",
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       "\n",
       "\n",
       "\n",
       "\n",
       "  <div class=\"bk-root\" id=\"d02ef413-c5bf-4718-8508-7241da2cea5a\" data-root-id=\"1097\"></div>\n"
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Application\",\"version\":\"2.1.1\"}};\n",
       "  var render_items = [{\"docid\":\"bfbe8ce8-14ed-4e60-bf80-76954a3c7cbc\",\"root_ids\":[\"1097\"],\"roots\":{\"1097\":\"d02ef413-c5bf-4718-8508-7241da2cea5a\"}}];\n",
       "  root.Bokeh.embed.embed_items_notebook(docs_json, render_items);\n",
       "\n",
       "  }\n",
       "  if (root.Bokeh !== undefined) {\n",
       "    embed_document(root);\n",
       "  } else {\n",
       "    var attempts = 0;\n",
       "    var timer = setInterval(function(root) {\n",
       "      if (root.Bokeh !== undefined) {\n",
       "        clearInterval(timer);\n",
       "        embed_document(root);\n",
       "      } else {\n",
       "        attempts++;\n",
       "        if (attempts > 100) {\n",
       "          clearInterval(timer);\n",
       "          console.log(\"Bokeh: ERROR: Unable to run BokehJS code because BokehJS library is missing\");\n",
       "        }\n",
       "      }\n",
       "    }, 10, root)\n",
       "  }\n",
       "})(window);"
      ],
      "application/vnd.bokehjs_exec.v0+json": ""
     },
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      "application/vnd.bokehjs_exec.v0+json": {
       "id": "1097"
      }
     },
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "\"\"\"Get the number of infections before and after the masks, and graph them\"\"\"\n",
    "cases_bef = ca_pre['cases']\n",
    "cases_aft = ca_post['cases']\n",
    "p_bef = make_bar(labels = [x for x in range(len(cases_bef))], nums = cases_bef)\n",
    "p_aft = make_bar(labels = [x for x in range(len(cases_aft))], nums = cases_aft)\n",
    "show(gridplot([p_bef, p_aft], ncols = 2))\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 17,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "3750.642857142857\n",
      "p value is  < .05;  reject the null hypothesis\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "False"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 17,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "\"\"\"are the differences significant? \"\"\"\n",
    "print(np.mean(cases_aft) - np.mean(cases_bef))\n",
    "\"\"\"\n",
    "Cases after increased after the mask mandate. (Surprising, right? The state passed a law and there were *more* \n",
    "infections.)\n",
    "\n",
    "The null hypothesis is the cases afterwards are *not* greater than the cases before. Remember, the null hypothesis\n",
    "is conservative, and the opposite of what you want to prove. \n",
    "\"\"\"\n",
    "\n",
    "# When resample, make the bigger of the two samples the first. Then test that the diff is greater than 0\n",
    "# You can do it the other way (the least first, and test if diff is less than 0), but this way is easier\n",
    "resamp_diff = repeat_resample(cases_aft.tolist(), cases_bef.tolist())\n",
    "lower = np.percentile(resamp_diff, 5)\n",
    "upper = np.percentile(resamp_diff, 95)\n",
    "lies_inside =  lower < 1 < upper\n",
    "if lies_inside:\n",
    "    print('p value is not < .05; do not reject the null hypothesis')\n",
    "else:\n",
    "    print('p value is  < .05;  reject the null hypothesis')\n",
    "lies_inside\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 11,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "1.0199781964101093 1.0400259829495748\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "'The rt *increased* after the mask mandate '"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 11,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "\"\"\"Let's get the rt value before and after the mask mandate\"\"\"\n",
    "popt_pre, pcov_pre = optim.curve_fit(f = exp_func, xdata =list(range(14)), ydata = ca_pre['cases'])\n",
    "popt_post, pcov_post = optim.curve_fit(f = exp_func, xdata =list(range(14)), ydata = ca_post['cases'])\n",
    "rt_bef, rt_aft = popt_pre[1], popt_post[1]\n",
    "print(rt_bef, rt_aft)\n",
    "\"\"\"The rt *increased* after the mask mandate \"\"\""
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 12,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "'Conclusion: cases increased after the mandate. rt increased after the mandate. '"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 12,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "\"\"\"Conclusion: cases increased after the mandate. rt increased after the mandate. \"\"\""
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "'Do the same analysis for the other 22 states'"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 13,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "\"\"\"Do the same analysis for the other 22 states\"\"\""
   ]
  }
 ],
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