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Sam Maurer edited this page Sep 5, 2018 · 16 revisions

Template-based UrbanSim model components

UrbanSim models are made up of sequences of steps, each of which captures a single dynamic: home price prediction, household moves, etc. These steps fit together to produce detailed forecasts.

We're developing a template-based system to make it easier to build and manage these model steps. One part of the project is urbansim_templates, a library of python classes for abstract categories of steps: OLS models, binary logit models, multinomial logit models with sampling of alternatives, etc.

Another part of the project is this repository. The goal is to build out a set of notebooks that represent a generically specified model of the Bay Area -- or two models, actually, one representing housing stock at the unit level and the other at the parcel or building level.

These models will support a variety of other efforts: extending UrbanSim to capture travel and congestion dynamics, integrating it with other modeling systems, testing and validating the template system, benchmarking empirical improvements to individual components.

(This repository also hosts experimental models, and generic template-related notebooks not tied to a specific model.)

Development guide

Building a model step notebook

  1. Set up the required software packages on Rome server or local machine
  2. Make sure you have current copy of the base data
  3. Does the data match the parcel model data spec, or equivalent unit model spec? If not, coordinate with others to implement a fix that will work across model steps. Save the notebook you use to generate any new data files, and update the data READMEs.
  4. Import any model steps that are prerequisites for running the one you're working on, and make sure they work.
  5. Work with Paul to estimate a simple but empirically reasonable model step.
  6. Do some validation and visualization of the inputs and outputs.
  7. Save your working notebooks, but also create a clean notebook that builds, saves, and validates the final version of the model step. These will be collected together into an end-to-end model.

Project outline and tasks

High priority initial tasks

  • Make sure conda environment is up to date, and document the setup process in the main README or a wiki page -> Max? Sam?
  • Identify which data tables to use for the parcel model and unit model, and document this in the data READMEs -> Max? Paul? Sam?
  • Develop an official data spec for unit-based model

Unit-based model without tenure

  1. Accessibility metrics, aka "network aggregations"
    (not yet templatized)
  2. Real estate price model: home sales
  3. Real estate price model: commercial rents
  4. Household relocation
  5. Household location choice
  6. Firm relocation?
  7. Firm location choice?
  8. Household choice of workplace?
  9. Pro forma feasibility and real estate development
    (not yet templatized)
  10. Demographic transition
    (not yet templatized)

Benchmark and validate full model. Develop policy scenarios for testing.

Parcel-based model without tenure

  1. Accessibility metrics, aka "network aggregations"
    (not yet templatized)
  2. Real estate price model: home sales
  3. Real estate price model: commercial rents
  4. Household relocation
  5. Household location choice
  6. Firm relocation?
  7. Firm location choice?
  8. Household choice of workplace?
  9. Pro forma feasibility and real estate development
    (not yet templatized)
  10. Demographic transition
    (not yet templatized)

Benchmark and validate full model. Develop policy scenarios for testing.

Research model: units with tenure and other characteristics

  1. Accessibility metrics, aka "network aggregations"
    (not yet templatized)
  2. Real estate price model: home sales
  3. Real estate price model: residential rents
  4. Real estate price model: commercial rents
  5. Household relocation: owners
  6. Household relocation: renters
  7. Household location choice: owners -- experiment with sampling
  8. Household location choice: renters -- experiment with sampling
  9. Firm relocation?
  10. Firm location choice?
  11. Household choice of workplace?
  12. Pro forma feasibility and real estate development
    (not yet templatized)
  13. Demographic transition
    (not yet templatized)

Benchmark and validate full model. Develop policy scenarios for testing.

Additional resources

  • Archival project outline and tasks, from summer 2018: Google Doc
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