ATTRIBUTION SYNTHESIS

Figure number: Figure 3.41 From the IPCC Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report: Chapter 3

Description:

Summary figure showing simulated and observed changes in key large-scale indicators of climate change across the climate system, for continental, ocean basin and larger scales. Black lines show observations, brown lines and shading show the multi-model mean and 5-95th percentile ranges for CMIP6 historical simulations including anthropogenic and natural forcing, and blue lines and shading show corresponding ensemble means and 5-95th percentile ranges for CMIP6 natural-only simulations. Temperature timeseries are as in Figure 3.9, but with smoothing using a low pass filter. Precipitation timeseries are as in Figure 3.15 and ocean heat content as in Figure 3.26.

Author list:

• Bock, L.: DLR, Germany; lisa.bock@dlr.de
• Gillett, N.: Environment and Climate Change Canada

ESMValTool Branch:

• ESMValTool-AR6-OriginalCode-FinalFigures: ar6_chapter_3

ESMValCore Branch:

• ESMValCore-AR6-OriginalCode-FinalFigures: fix_cmip6_models_newcore

Recipe & diagnostics:

Recipes used:

• recipes/ipccwg1ar6ch3/recipe_ipccwg1ar6ch3_atmosphere_fig_3_9.yml
• recipes/ipccwg1ar6ch3/recipe_ipccwg1ar6ch3_fig_3_41_pr.yml
• recipes/ipccwg1ar6ch3/recipe_ipccwg1ar6ch3_fig_3_41_siconc.yml

Diagnostic used: diag_scripts/ipcc_ar6/tas_anom_damip.ncl

Expected image path:

• Fig_3_41.pdf (See the section Additional instructions below.)

Additional datasets:

received from Lee De Mora (CA in Chapter 3, ledm@pml.ac.uk):

• CMIP6_historical_detrended_total.nc
• CMIP6_hist-nat_detrended_total.nc

received from Chapter 2:

• AR6_FGD_assessment_timeseries_OHC.csv

Software description:

• ESMValTool environment file: IPCC_environments/ar6_newcore_lisa_conda_environment.yml
• pip file: IPCC_environments/ar6_newcore_lisa_pip_environment.txt

Hardware description:

Machine used: Mistral

Additional instructions:

1. Run the three ESMValTool recipes listed above to generate the nc-files: tas_anom_damip_.nc; precip_anom_.nc; tsline_collect_siconc_*.nc
2. Run IPCC_additional_scripts/Fig_3_41_ohc.ncl to generate the nc-file: ohc_damip.nc (input are ohc-files listed under addtional datasets)
3. Run IPCC_additional_scripts/Fig_3_41_collect.ncl to create the final figure: Fig_3_41.pdf