The scripts in this folder prepare an exploratory figure for the IPBES NEXUS assessment. Specifically they enable the processing and formatting of relevant scenarios (downloaded in 'raw_data', but not uploaded) and to create (spatial-)temporal visualizations.
The aim of the analysis is to highlight projected trends in several key indicators that are linked to the various Nexus elements and their "entrypoints" (e.g. Nature conservation)
- Data from ISIMIP, BES-SIM and other sources are compiled and downloaded.
- A spatial map for the year 2050 was extracted from each source as well as the aggregated global estimate per time steps. For the aggregation an arithmetic mean was used.
- Indicator values are transformed, if not already done, into relative estimates with the baseline year being the year 2015 as starting date.
- Any indicator with inverse scale (e.g. declining intactness) is inverted for the spatial overlay to emphasize potential linkages.
- All spatial projections for 2050 were normalized (to a scale of 0-1) and then averaged per Nexus element (Biodiversity, Food, Water, Health, Climate).
- This is not a model comparison exercise and it should be noted that there are substantial differences among the various projections (as for any model).
- The spatial analysis can only highlight potential interlinkages within the nexus in the future, not actual ones.
- The data used here are largely from SSP-RCP scenario combinations as used by the IPCC. Alternative scenario pathways and framing (e.g. Nature Future Framework) were not available at the time this figure was created.
- Scenarios are not necessarily strictly comparable given that not all indicators exist per SSP-RCP combination (although see FigureData.xlsx)
- For many nexus elements there might not exist yet relevant projected indicators, reflecting a data gap.
See FigureData file.
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