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Added updates combining cost increases reported by industry, floating plant scale factors, and learning curves
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# As of June 2023, all years are COD! NOT FID! | ||
# ncf values are 0 because we will model directly | ||
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# mid scennario capex reductions based on learning rates of 7.3% (fixed) and | ||
# 10.2% (float) | ||
# advanced and conservative scenarios experience factor = b0+/-bse | ||
# regression variables included turbine rating (effects excluded from LR) | ||
# floating capex trajectory has a scaling factor of 2.5 (cite FORCE Report) | ||
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# opex trajectories derived from Wiser et al. (2021) Expert Elicitation by | ||
# assuming same magnitude of reduction in 2035 (adjusted relative to 2022) | ||
# but scaling the capex learning curve to match that value in 2035 | ||
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# all trajectories have short term cost adders to account for higher costs | ||
# reported by industry. | ||
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fixed_mid_scenario: | ||
capex_2025: -0.156806259 | ||
capex_2030: 0.158986365 | ||
capex_2035: 0.196455523 | ||
capex_2040: 0.226426582 | ||
capex_2045: 0.25292737 | ||
capex_2050: 0.275000051 | ||
ncf_2025: 0 | ||
ncf_2030: 0 | ||
ncf_2035: 0 | ||
ncf_2040: 0 | ||
ncf_2045: 0 | ||
ncf_2050: 0 | ||
opex_2025: -0.162726796 | ||
opex_2030: 0.146126185 | ||
opex_2035: 0.180564516 | ||
opex_2040: 0.208111259 | ||
opex_2045: 0.232468436 | ||
opex_2050: 0.252755689 | ||
fixed_conservative_scenario: | ||
capex_2025: -0.255881389 | ||
capex_2030: -0.152322165 | ||
capex_2035: 0.121762357 | ||
capex_2040: 0.141357556 | ||
capex_2045: 0.158942439 | ||
capex_2050: 0.1737834 | ||
ncf_2025: 0 | ||
ncf_2030: 0 | ||
ncf_2035: 0 | ||
ncf_2040: 0 | ||
ncf_2045: 0 | ||
ncf_2050: 0 | ||
opex_2025: -0.274954562 | ||
opex_2030: -0.194549838 | ||
opex_2035: 0.069122564 | ||
opex_2040: 0.080246449 | ||
opex_2045: 0.090229109 | ||
opex_2050: 0.098654088 | ||
fixed_advanced_scenario: | ||
capex_2025: -0.047733637 | ||
capex_2030: 0.217880507 | ||
capex_2035: 0.266870354 | ||
capex_2040: 0.305374904 | ||
capex_2045: 0.338904611 | ||
capex_2050: 0.366454243 | ||
ncf_2025: 0 | ||
ncf_2030: 0 | ||
ncf_2035: 0 | ||
ncf_2040: 0 | ||
ncf_2045: 0 | ||
ncf_2050: 0 | ||
opex_2025: -0.055236627 | ||
opex_2030: 0.201895239 | ||
opex_2035: 0.247290841 | ||
opex_2040: 0.282970423 | ||
opex_2045: 0.314040152 | ||
opex_2050: 0.339568546 | ||
floating_mid_scenario: | ||
capex_2025: -1.104037385 | ||
capex_2030: -0.360733267 | ||
capex_2035: -0.097373909 | ||
capex_2040: 0.029708329 | ||
capex_2045: 0.104001537 | ||
capex_2050: 0.145849628 | ||
ncf_2025: 0 | ||
ncf_2030: 0 | ||
ncf_2035: 0 | ||
ncf_2040: 0 | ||
ncf_2045: 0 | ||
ncf_2050: 0 | ||
opex_2025: -0.113229956 | ||
opex_2030: 0.212524235 | ||
opex_2035: 0.261652542 | ||
opex_2040: 0.285359068 | ||
opex_2045: 0.299218076 | ||
opex_2050: 0.307024618 | ||
floating_conservative_scenario: | ||
capex_2025: -1.384849833 | ||
capex_2030: -0.954067047 | ||
capex_2035: -0.488069313 | ||
capex_2040: -0.377027157 | ||
capex_2045: -0.30961593 | ||
capex_2050: -0.270734415 | ||
ncf_2025: 0 | ||
ncf_2030: 0 | ||
ncf_2035: 0 | ||
ncf_2040: 0 | ||
ncf_2045: 0 | ||
ncf_2050: 0 | ||
opex_2025: -0.229124445 | ||
opex_2030: -0.114116181 | ||
opex_2035: 0.172759534 | ||
opex_2040: 0.19171695 | ||
opex_2045: 0.203225576 | ||
opex_2050: 0.209863533 | ||
floating_advanced_scenario: | ||
capex_2025: -0.827905943 | ||
capex_2030: -0.077560145 | ||
capex_2035: 0.199817748 | ||
capex_2040: 0.325110179 | ||
capex_2045: 0.395539991 | ||
capex_2050: 0.434247631 | ||
ncf_2025: 0 | ||
ncf_2030: 0 | ||
ncf_2035: 0 | ||
ncf_2040: 0 | ||
ncf_2045: 0 | ||
ncf_2050: 0 | ||
opex_2025: 0.008114326 | ||
opex_2030: 0.273579547 | ||
opex_2035: 0.326927966 | ||
opex_2040: 0.351025608 | ||
opex_2045: 0.364571458 | ||
opex_2050: 0.372016144 |