Improve solar and wind modeling (#284)

* small improvement * implement delay of BalWin 1 & 3 * reduce onwind capacity per sqkm from 3 to 2 * add correction_factor for wind, round correction factor for solar * rename scenario * increase memory resources
PyPSA · Nov 21, 2024 · 7b0dce4 · 7b0dce4
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Showing 4 changed files with 15 additions and 10 deletions.
diff --git a/ariadne-data/offshore_connection_points.csv b/ariadne-data/offshore_connection_points.csv
@@ -17,8 +17,8 @@ NOR-3-3,,DC-ONAS NOR-3-3 (DolWin6),Emden / Ost (TenneT),90.0,900,2023.0,NEP2023
 NOR-6-3,,DC-ONAS NOR-6-3 (BorWin4),Hanekenfähr (Amprion),264.0,900,2028.0,NEP2023 Startnetz,52.475798,7.307034
 NOR-7-1,,DC-ONAS NOR-7-1 (BorWin5),Garrel / Ost (TenneT),225.0,900,2025.0,NEP2023 Startnetz,52.945885,8.075682
 NOR-7-2,,DC-ONAS NOR-7-2 (BorWin6),Büttel (TenneT),235.0,980,2027.0,NEP2023 Startnetz,53.917758,9.234576
-NOR-9-1,M243,HGÜ-Verbindung NOR-9-1 (BalWin1),Wehrendorf (Amprion),363.0,2000,2029.0,Szenario B/C 2045,52.347253,8.307983
-NOR-9-2,M236,HGÜ-Verbindung NOR-9-2 (BalWin3),Wilhelmshaven 2 (TenneT),250.0,2000,2029.0,Szenario B/C 2045,53.56214,8.12915
+NOR-9-1,M243,HGÜ-Verbindung NOR-9-1 (BalWin1),Wehrendorf (Amprion),363.0,2000,2030.0,Szenario B/C 2045,52.347253,8.307983
+NOR-9-2,M236,HGÜ-Verbindung NOR-9-2 (BalWin3),Wilhelmshaven 2 (TenneT),250.0,2000,2031.0,Szenario B/C 2045,53.56214,8.12915
 NOR-9-3,M234,HGÜ-Verbindung NOR-9-3 (BalWin4),Unterweser (TenneT),265.0,2000,2029.0,Szenario B/C 2045,53.428708,8.472726
 NOR-10-1,M39,HGÜ-Verbindung NOR-10-1 (BalWin2),Westerkappeln (Amprion),371.0,2000,2030.0,Szenario B/C 2045,52.275966,7.887789
 NOR-11-1,M233,HGÜ-Verbindung NOR-11-1 (LanWin3),Suchraum Heide (50Hertz),215.0,2000,2030.0,Szenario B/C 2045,54.16277,9.05231

diff --git a/config/config.yaml b/config/config.yaml
@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@
 
 # docs in https://pypsa-eur.readthedocs.io/en/latest/configuration.html#run
 run:
-  prefix: 20241113-export-kernnetz-invest
+  prefix: 20241120-correct-wind
 
   name:
   # - CurrentPolicies
@@ -104,7 +104,9 @@ atlite:
 
 renewable:
   onwind:
+    capacity_per_sqkm: 2
     cutout: europe-2019-sarah3-era5
+    correction_factor: 0.95
     resource:
       smooth: false  #this is false until correction to onshore wind speeds from GWA implemented
       #based on Vestas_V112_3MW, but changing hub_height from 80m with time
@@ -128,6 +130,7 @@ renewable:
     capacity_per_sqkm: 6
     landfall_length: 30
     cutout: europe-2019-sarah3-era5
+    correction_factor: 0.95
     resource:
       smooth: true
       #based on NREL_ReferenceTurbine_2020ATB_5.5MW, but changing hub_height from 80m with time
@@ -151,6 +154,7 @@ renewable:
     capacity_per_sqkm: 6
     landfall_length: 30
     cutout: europe-2019-sarah3-era5
+    correction_factor: 0.95
     resource:
       smooth: true
       #based on NREL_ReferenceTurbine_2020ATB_5.5MW, but changing hub_height from 80m with time
@@ -174,12 +178,13 @@ renewable:
     landfall_length: 30
     capacity_per_sqkm: 6
     cutout: europe-2019-sarah3-era5
+    correction_factor: 0.95
   solar:
     cutout: europe-2019-sarah3-era5
-    correction_factor: 0.918 # scaling to Abbildung 36 of https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/veroeffentlichungen/studien/aktuelle-fakten-zur-photovoltaik-in-deutschland.html
+    correction_factor: 0.9 # scaling to Abbildung 36 of https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/veroeffentlichungen/studien/aktuelle-fakten-zur-photovoltaik-in-deutschland.html
   solar-hsat:
     cutout: europe-2019-sarah3-era5
-    correction_factor: 0.918 # scaling to Abbildung 36 of https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/veroeffentlichungen/studien/aktuelle-fakten-zur-photovoltaik-in-deutschland.html
+    correction_factor: 0.9 # scaling to Abbildung 36 of https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/veroeffentlichungen/studien/aktuelle-fakten-zur-photovoltaik-in-deutschland.html
   hydro:
     cutout: europe-2019-sarah3-era5
 
@@ -441,7 +446,7 @@ solving:
           DE:
             2020: 7.8
             2025: 11.3
-            2030: 31.3 # uba Projektionsbericht
+            2030: 29.3 # uba Projektionsbericht and NEP without delayed BalWin 3
             2035: 70
             2040: 70
             2045: 70

diff --git a/workflow/Snakefile b/workflow/Snakefile
@@ -280,7 +280,7 @@ rule modify_prenetwork:
         network=RESULTS
         + "prenetworks-final/base_s_{clusters}_l{ll}_{opts}_{sector_opts}_{planning_horizons}.nc",
     resources:
-        mem_mb=2000,
+        mem_mb=4000,
     log:
         RESULTS
         + "logs/modify_prenetwork_base_s_{clusters}_l{ll}_{opts}_{sector_opts}_{planning_horizons}.log",
@@ -521,7 +521,7 @@ rule export_ariadne_variables:
         exported_variables_full=RESULTS + "ariadne/exported_variables_full.xlsx",
     resources:
         # A heuristic to assign more memory for larger networks. Should probably be quadratic??
-        mem_mb=(lambda w: 320 * int(config_provider("scenario", "clusters")(w)[0])),
+        mem_mb=(lambda w: 400 * int(config_provider("scenario", "clusters")(w)[0])),
     log:
         RESULTS + "logs/export_ariadne_variables.log",
     script:

diff --git a/workflow/scripts/export_ariadne_variables.py b/workflow/scripts/export_ariadne_variables.py
@@ -494,9 +494,9 @@ def _get_capacities(n, region, cap_func, cap_string="Capacity|"):
     # var[cap_string + "Electricity|Gas|CC|w/o CCS"] =
     # ! Not implemented, rarely used
 
-    var[cap_string + "Electricity|Gas|CC"] = capacities_electricity.get("CCGT")
+    var[cap_string + "Electricity|Gas|CC"] = capacities_electricity.get("CCGT", 0)
 
-    var[cap_string + "Electricity|Gas|OC"] = capacities_electricity.get("OCGT")
+    var[cap_string + "Electricity|Gas|OC"] = capacities_electricity.get("OCGT", 0)
 
     var[cap_string + "Electricity|Gas|w/ CCS"] = capacities_electricity.get(
         "urban central gas CHP CC", 0