Nonparametric Fraudulent Websites Detector

• WriteUp
• Slides

Paricipating Project in Winter 2022 University of Washington Directed Reading Program. This project’s primary goal is to demonstrate a data science project’s deployment into fraud prediction using open source and free tools such as R, h2o, Caret, and others. That includes the following components:

Dataset

Priliminary data used in this research for test and train set splitting, test statistics and other metrics calculation comes from the

UCI Phishing Website Dataset

• old.arff
• TrainingData.arff

Dashboard

An R Shiny dashboard that provides a set of tools descriptive and predictive analysis of predictors data.

XGBoost

XGBoost is a type of ensemble tree method that apply the principle of boosting weak learners, generally Classification And Regression Trees (CARTs), using the gradient descent architecture. However, it is with observable improvements upon the base Gradient Boosting Machines framework that XGBoost advances its system optimization and algorithmic enhancements.

Variable Importance Heatmap

Metrics in the Model

Information Gain

Gain is a parameter that corresponds to the importance of the node in the model, for split nodes, the gain is the information gain metric of a split node.

Cover

The Cover metric is the contribution of each feature to the number of observations summed up from each tree expressed in percentage, it is calculated as the second order gradient of training data classified to the leaf.

Random Forest

# Different levels causes an issue 
# stick with just training and break it into halves
old <- readARFF("../data/old.arff")
data <- readARFF("../data/TrainingDataset.arff")

# Split training into train and test set
ind <- sample(2, nrow(data), replace = TRUE, prob = c(0.7, 0.3))
train <- data[ind==1,]
test <- data[ind==2,]

#Fit Models

# Use every predictor
rf1 <- randomForest(Result~.,data=train)

# Get a sense of the most important predictors
vip <- varImpPlot(rf1,
           sort = T,
           n.var = 10) + title("Var Importance in  ")

# Only the 5 most important predictors
rf2 <- randomForest(Result~SSLfinal_State
                    + URL_of_Anchor
                    + web_traffic
                    + having_Sub_Domain
                    + Prefix_Suffix,data=train)

Support Vector Machine

### Use h2o built-in psvm implementation ###
install.packages("h2o")
library(h2o)
h2o.init()

svm <- h2o.psvm(
 gamma = 0.01,
 rank_ratio = 0.1,
 y = "Result",
 training_frame = as.h2o(train),
 disable_training_metrics = FALSE
)

perf <- h2o.performance(svm)

### Use external libraries ###
install.packages('e1071')
library(e1071)
training$Result = factor(training$Result, levels = c(0, 1))

classifier <- svm(formula = Result ~.,
                 data = train,
                 type = 'C-classification',
                 kernel = 'linear')
plot(classifier,data=train,formula = Result ~.,)
perf <- h2o.performance(svm)

Model Comparison and Error Analysis

RF Model that Includes Every Predictor

Accuracy	0.9811
95% CI	(0.9778, 0.9841)
No Information Rate	0.5595
P-Value [Acc $>$ NIR]	$<2e-16$
Kappa	0.9617
Mcnemar's Test P-Value	0.09673
Sensitivity	0.9755
Specificity	0.9856
Pos Pred Value	0.9816
Neg Pred Value	0.9808
Prevalence	0.4405
Detection Rate	0.4297
Detection Prevalence	0.4377
Balanced Accuracy	0.9805
'Positive' Class	-1

RF Model that Includes the Prominent Five Predictors

Accuracy	0.9246
95% CI	(0.9152, 0.9333)
No Information Rate	0.551
P-Value [Acc $>$ NIR]	$< 2.2e-16$
Kappa	0.8482
Mcnemar's Test P-Value	0.0008826
Sensitivity	0.9339
Specificity	0.9171
Pos Pred Value	0.9017
Neg Pred Value	0.9445
Prevalence	0.4490
Detection Rate	0.4193
Detection Prevalence	0.4650
Balanced Accuracy	0.9255
'Positive' Class	-1