Monte Carlo simulation for the Hardrock 100

See my Western States simulation here.

Run simulations to calculate your odds of getting into the lottery. This is the same method used by Hardrock themselves but with this you can run the odds before Hardrock officially publishes the results.

Note that there could be differences between these results and what Hardrock publishes. It depends on how many simulation runs you do, but also it depends on what picks the RD uses and what pools those end up coming from, and whether the preliminary ticket numbers end up changing.

This does not factor in your odds of getting onto the waitlist, just your odds of getting selected into the original list of starters.

Running simulations

You can run simulations by invoking main.rb and it'll prompt you for how many simulations to run. Then it will output the average number of people selected per category as well as the odds for each category.

ruby main.rb

You could also start up irb and run it that way:

load 'monte_carlo.rb'
mc = MonteCarlo.new(<num-of-simulations>)
mc.run_simulations
mc.calculate_odds

Entrants

Entrant counts are hardcoded in JSON files in the years folder, so make sure those are updated before running simulations.