Predicting the spread of Ebola virus in Sierra Leone using an Epidemiological model

A SIR epidemiological model was used to predict the virus spread in Sierra Leone -- when Ebola was the hot topic in 2015.

Model is based on differential equation, and we use Runge Kutta method to approximate the numerical solution. The assumptions are:

1. At least one person is infected in the population
2. The population, rate of infection, rate of recovery, rate of death is fixed
3. Once recovered, one cannot be re-infected

We were surprised to see how closely it resembled the actual real-world scenario with a simple model. The trend of the model was very similar.