Merge pull request #3462 from joostjager/mc-extrapolate

routing+routerrpc: improve prob. estimation for untried connections

cmd/lncli/cmd_query_mission_control.go

@@ -31,36 +31,17 @@ func queryMissionControl(ctx *cli.Context) error {
 		return err
 	}
 
-	type displayNodeHistory struct {
-		Pubkey           string
-		LastFailTime     int64
-		OtherSuccessProb float32
-	}
-
 	type displayPairHistory struct {
 		NodeFrom, NodeTo      string
 		LastAttemptSuccessful bool
 		Timestamp             int64
-		SuccessProb           float32
 		MinPenalizeAmtSat     int64
 	}
 
 	displayResp := struct {
-		Nodes []displayNodeHistory
 		Pairs []displayPairHistory
 	}{}
 
-	for _, n := range snapshot.Nodes {
-		displayResp.Nodes = append(
-			displayResp.Nodes,
-			displayNodeHistory{
-				Pubkey:           hex.EncodeToString(n.Pubkey),
-				LastFailTime:     n.LastFailTime,
-				OtherSuccessProb: n.OtherSuccessProb,
-			},
-		)
-	}
-
 	for _, n := range snapshot.Pairs {
 		displayResp.Pairs = append(
 			displayResp.Pairs,
@@ -69,7 +50,6 @@ func queryMissionControl(ctx *cli.Context) error {
 				NodeTo:                hex.EncodeToString(n.NodeTo),
 				LastAttemptSuccessful: n.LastAttemptSuccessful,
 				Timestamp:             n.Timestamp,
-				SuccessProb:           n.SuccessProb,
 				MinPenalizeAmtSat:     n.MinPenalizeAmtSat,
 			},
 		)

lnrpc/routerrpc/config.go

@@ -16,6 +16,15 @@ type RoutingConfig struct {
 	// a route when no other information is available.
 	AprioriHopProbability float64 `long:"apriorihopprob" description:"Assumed success probability of a hop in a route when no other information is available."`
 
+	// AprioriWeight is a value in the range [0, 1] that defines to what
+	// extent historical results should be extrapolated to untried
+	// connections. Setting it to one will completely ignore historical
+	// results and always assume the configured a priori probability for
+	// untried connections. A value of zero will ignore the a priori
+	// probability completely and only base the probability on historical
+	// results, unless there are none available.
+	AprioriWeight float64 `long:"aprioriweight" description:"Weight of the a priori probability in success probability estimation. Valid values are in [0, 1]."`
+
 	// PenaltyHalfLife defines after how much time a penalized node or
 	// channel is back at 50% probability.
 	PenaltyHalfLife time.Duration `long:"penaltyhalflife" description:"Defines the duration after which a penalized node or channel is back at 50% probability"`

lnrpc/routerrpc/config_active.go

@@ -45,6 +45,7 @@ type Config struct {
 func DefaultConfig() *Config {
 	defaultRoutingConfig := RoutingConfig{
 		AprioriHopProbability: routing.DefaultAprioriHopProbability,
+		AprioriWeight:         routing.DefaultAprioriWeight,
 		MinRouteProbability:   routing.DefaultMinRouteProbability,
 		PenaltyHalfLife:       routing.DefaultPenaltyHalfLife,
 		AttemptCost: routing.DefaultPaymentAttemptPenalty.
@@ -61,6 +62,7 @@ func DefaultConfig() *Config {
 func GetRoutingConfig(cfg *Config) *RoutingConfig {
 	return &RoutingConfig{
 		AprioriHopProbability: cfg.AprioriHopProbability,
+		AprioriWeight:         cfg.AprioriWeight,
 		MinRouteProbability:   cfg.MinRouteProbability,
 		AttemptCost:           cfg.AttemptCost,
 		PenaltyHalfLife:       cfg.PenaltyHalfLife,

lnrpc/routerrpc/config_default.go

@@ -18,6 +18,7 @@ func DefaultConfig() *Config {
 func GetRoutingConfig(cfg *Config) *RoutingConfig {
 	return &RoutingConfig{
 		AprioriHopProbability: routing.DefaultAprioriHopProbability,
+		AprioriWeight:         routing.DefaultAprioriWeight,
 		MinRouteProbability:   routing.DefaultMinRouteProbability,
 		AttemptCost: routing.DefaultPaymentAttemptPenalty.
 			ToSatoshis(),

lnrpc/routerrpc/router.proto

@@ -337,30 +337,12 @@ message QueryMissionControlRequest {}
 
 /// QueryMissionControlResponse contains mission control state.
 message QueryMissionControlResponse {
-    /// Node-level mission control state.
-    repeated NodeHistory nodes = 1 [json_name = "nodes"];
+    reserved 1;
 
     /// Node pair-level mission control state.
     repeated PairHistory pairs = 2 [json_name = "pairs"];
 }
 
-/// NodeHistory contains the mission control state for a particular node.
-message NodeHistory {
-    /// Node pubkey
-    bytes pubkey = 1 [json_name = "pubkey"];
-
-    /// Time stamp of last failure. Set to zero if no failure happened yet.
-    int64 last_fail_time = 2 [json_name = "last_fail_time"];
-
-    /**
-    Estimation of success probability of forwarding towards peers of this node
-    for which no specific history is available.
-    **/
-    float other_success_prob = 3 [json_name = "other_success_prob"];
-
-    reserved 4;
-}
-
 /// PairHistory contains the mission control state for a particular node pair.
 message PairHistory {
     /// The source node pubkey of the pair.
@@ -375,8 +357,7 @@ message PairHistory {
     /// Minimum penalization amount (only applies to failed attempts).
     int64 min_penalize_amt_sat = 4 [json_name = "min_penalize_amt_sat"];
 
-    /// Estimation of success probability for this pair.
-    float success_prob = 5 [json_name = "success_prob"];
+    reserved 5;
 
     /// Whether the last payment attempt through this pair was successful.
     bool last_attempt_successful = 6 [json_name = "last_attempt_successful"];

lnrpc/routerrpc/router_server.go

@@ -466,22 +466,6 @@ func (s *Server) QueryMissionControl(ctx context.Context,
 
 	snapshot := s.cfg.RouterBackend.MissionControl.GetHistorySnapshot()
 
-	rpcNodes := make([]*NodeHistory, 0, len(snapshot.Nodes))
-	for _, n := range snapshot.Nodes {
-		// Copy node struct to prevent loop variable binding bugs.
-		node := n
-
-		rpcNode := NodeHistory{
-			Pubkey:       node.Node[:],
-			LastFailTime: node.LastFail.Unix(),
-			OtherSuccessProb: float32(
-				node.OtherSuccessProb,
-			),
-		}
-
-		rpcNodes = append(rpcNodes, &rpcNode)
-	}
-
 	rpcPairs := make([]*PairHistory, 0, len(snapshot.Pairs))
 	for _, p := range snapshot.Pairs {
 		// Prevent binding to loop variable.
@@ -494,15 +478,13 @@ func (s *Server) QueryMissionControl(ctx context.Context,
 			MinPenalizeAmtSat: int64(
 				pair.MinPenalizeAmt.ToSatoshis(),
 			),
-			SuccessProb:           float32(pair.SuccessProb),
 			LastAttemptSuccessful: pair.LastAttemptSuccessful,
 		}
 
 		rpcPairs = append(rpcPairs, &rpcPair)
 	}
 
 	response := QueryMissionControlResponse{
-		Nodes: rpcNodes,
 		Pairs: rpcPairs,
 	}