Authors : Facundo Piguillem, Liyan Shi
Date of publication : March 27th, 2020
Paper : Available here
Code available : no
Government policies model-based scenario
- Multiplicative term in infection rate in function of variable level of working interactions in time.
- Symptomatically infectious, and asymptomatic tested, if tests are available, are isolated and don't spread the virus
Type of model : Compartimental
Technical description : SEIR, optimal control
Historical data w/ quarantine : Early data in Italy (calibration only)
Optimization formulation : Maximization of a welfare function with hamiltonian formulation
Assumptions
- Recovered and death rate depend on number of infectious and hospital capacity
- Some economical hypothesis (like production=consumption)
Input parameters
Essentially :
- contagion rate,
- exposed to infected rate,
- recovery rate,
- death rate if treated,
- death rate if untreated,
- hospital capacity,
- initial exposed,
- critical mass,
- daily discount rate
Output variables : Optimal level of activity trajectory
Remarks
Model formulated in terms of economic loss, gives the optimal trajectory of the intensity of lockdown. Demands lot of exogenously fixed or calibrated parameters.