MLB-ROY

Let's talk about the MLB Rookie of the Year Race

Full Report

Full Detailed Report found here

Data

• 1974 to 2024 rookie data
  • Excluded 1994 and 2020 since they were shortened seasons
  • 1974-2023 were used for Training/Testing Data
  • 2024 was used to make predictions
• Starters: minimum 100 Innings Pitched (IP)
• Relievers: minimum 40 Innings Pitched (IP)
• Batters: minimum 300 Plate Appearances (PA)

Data Cleaning

Data Cleaning Notebook

Helper Functions

I utilized several functions repeatedly throughout the modeling process.

In order to reduce the lines of code during the modelling I created a python script (.py file) which contains these various helper functions.

Helper Functions Script

Source

There were several sources for the data utilized in this project.

The data in the Awards Folder is sourced from either Lahman database or baseballr.

The data in the Fielding Folder is sourced from the Lahman database

The data in the MLB Folder and the data in the Rookies Folder were sourced from FanGraphs utilizing their custom reports feature.

The Cleaned Player IDs were sourced from a previous project of mine which combined player ids from the Lahman Database and the more frequently updated PlayerIDMap.

Models

• For both models I fit the model to three different data sets:
  • One for relievers
  • One for starters
  • One for batters

Vote Recipients

• Output: Probability between 0 and 1 for receiving a Rookie of the Year vote (vote_getter)
• Took the top 8 for 2024 from both the AL and NL
• Utilize these predictions in the predictions for the 2024 Rookie of the Year model
  • Rounded the top 8 vote getters to a 1, and the rest to a 0 for proper interpretation in the Rookie of the Year model predictions

Predictions

Vote Getter Predictions

Rookie of the Year

• Output: Probability between 0 and 1 for winning Rookie of the Year (rookie_of_the_year)
• Utilize these predictions to discuss the possible Rookie of the Year candidates

Predictions

Rookie of the Year Predictions